Trump tariffs trigger $19 billion settlement: XRP's beta value surges 2.5 times against Bitcoin

Trump's tariff remarks last week triggered a panic selling in the crypto market, with XRP plummeting 15% during the session and $19 billion in derivation positions evaporating. However, this week, after the risk sentiment stabilized, XRP rebounded 9%, far exceeding Bitcoin's 3.7%, with the actual event Beta value soaring to 2.5 times.

How Trump's Tariffs Ignite the Crypto Market

Last week, the White House's tough rhetoric on imposing tariffs on China became the last straw that broke the market's back. Risk assets were subjected to a comprehensive dumping, and the crypto market experienced one of the largest derivation liquidation events of the year.

· Complete Data on Market Collapse

Mainstream asset fall (Intraday on October 10):

XRP: fell by about 15%

Bitcoin: fell to a double-digit percentage

Overall market: Nearly 19 billion dollars in leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated.

Rebound performance on October 13:

(Source: CryptoSlate)

Bitcoin: up about 3.7%

Ethereum: up approximately 9%

Solana: up about 8.2%

XRP: Up approximately 9% (Rebound speed surpassing Bitcoin)

Behind this violent fluctuation is a chain reaction triggered by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy. According to the Financial Times, U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday as the White House took a more conciliatory tone on trade issues. Barron's tracking shows that the VIX panic index broke above 20 during the market crash window, a level that has historically corresponded with increased intraday volatility in the crypto market.

Key Variables of the Macroeconomic Environment

· Dynamics of the Dollar and Commodities:

1. The US dollar index has been volatile since entering October, with the TradingEconomics model predicting that the quarter-end reading will be close to over 90 points.

2. According to a report by Reuters, oil prices fell to a five-month low due to growth concerns related to Trump’s tariff risks.

3. The combination of a stronger dollar and softer oil prices often limits broader risk appetite.

This macro environment means that when volatility normalizes, the Beta coefficient of cryptocurrencies will compress; when volatility soars, the Beta coefficient will expand. XRP's performance during this event perfectly illustrates this mechanism.

XRP Beta Value Decryption against Bitcoin

The Beta value is a key indicator of the volatility of an asset relative to a benchmark asset. In the crypto market, Bitcoin is often used as a benchmark, and the Beta values of other tokens reflect their relative volatility.

· What is the event Beta value?

Calculation method: Beta value = Percentage change of XRP ÷ Percentage change of Bitcoin in the same time period

Test Data (October 10-13):

October 10th falling phase: XRP fell about 15%, Bitcoin had a double-digit decline, and the calculated Beta value is about 1.1-1.3 times.

Rebound phase on October 13: XRP rose by 9%, Bitcoin rose by 3.7%, with a calculated Beta value of about 2.4-2.5 times.

· Why is there asymmetric volatility?

This kind of asymmetry of "gentle when falling, aggressive when rising" is extremely important in practice, driven by three major forces:

Short Covering Effect: On Friday, large-scale forced deleveraging cleared out crowded long positions and formed a significant short position in the derivation order book. When market sentiment reverses, these shorts need to cover, and mechanical buying pushes XRP to accelerate upward.

Liquidity Pocket: Compared to Bitcoin, XRP has thinner liquidity during the relief phase, resulting in greater price impact from the same buy orders. Kaiko's research on cross-market liquidity confirms that liquidity has continued to tilt towards Bitcoin this year, and this structural backdrop explains why XRP's upward momentum can significantly expand during position changes.

Clearing chain reaction: Coinglass's XRP dashboard shows that a large number of short clearing points are aggregated at specific price ranges. When the price breaks through these ranges, forced liquidation orders mechanically continue the rebound momentum.

Future 10 Days Scenario Modeling

Based on the current market structure, traders can construct scenarios using three observable inputs: the trend of Bitcoin, derivation positioning, and the path of Trump tariff headlines.

Scenario 1: Basic Situation (Probability 60%)

Condition:

1. VIX has cooled down from the surge on Friday and remains below 20.

2. XRP futures financing is close to neutral.

3. The open contracts are being rebuilt at a measured pace.

Expected Beta value: 1.3-1.8 times

Practical application:

Bitcoin rose 4% → XRP rose 5-7%

Bitcoin falls back 4% → XRP drops 6-8% (may short-term overshoot when reaching the liquidation zone)

Scenario 2: Squeeze Situation (Probability 25%)

Condition:

The White House rhetoric continues to soften, and Trump's stance on tariffs is moderating.

The stock market maintains its upward momentum.

Financing has significantly turned positive, and the open contracts have rapidly increased.

Expected Beta Value: 2.0-3.0 times

Practical Applications:

Bitcoin rises 6-8% → XRP rises 12-20%

There is a continuation risk when breaking through the recent bearish liquidation range.

The market on Monday has already provided a precedent of a 2.5 times increase. If the market enters such an environment, leverage reconstruction will amplify volatility.

Scenario Three: Tariff Upgrade (Probability 15%)

Conditions:

Trump's tariff narrative heats up again

VIX rebounded above 22

The spread of market makers has widened, and liquidity has decreased.

Expected Beta value: Initial fall of 1.3-1.5 times, increased gap risk after breaking through the liquidation cluster.

Practical Application:

Bitcoin falls 8-10% → XRP falls 10-15%

Breaking through the previous bullish liquidation cluster will increase the gap risk.

Trader's Execution Checklist

To seize the opportunity of XRP in such a highly volatile environment, it is necessary to monitor three key indicators:

derivation data tracking

Coinglass XRP Dashboard Must-See Items:

Open interest change: A rapid rise indicates risk is being refilled.

Financing rate: A positive and rising rate indicates an increase in bullish sentiment, which raises the risk of squeeze.

Liquidation Heatmap: Marks price ranges that may trigger forced sell orders

Long-short ratio composition: Determine the main position direction of the market

Signal Interpretation:

Financing is positive + OI increases = tendency to squeeze risk and higher Beta value

Low financing + flat OI = Expectation of mean reversion to liquidation cluster

Negative financing + Decrease in OI = Beware of further fall risk

Macro Indicator Monitoring

VIX Panic Index:

Below 20: Volatility normalizes, Beta value compresses to 1.3-1.8 times.

Breakthrough 20: Bidirectional volatility range expands

Over 22: Extreme volatility environment, beware of gap risk

Trump Tariff News Tracking:

The tone is softened = Risk sentiment improves, favorable for Rebound

Strong stance = Re-triggering downward pressure

Dollar Index:

Strengthening usually limits risk appetite.

Combine with oil price dynamics to assess the macro environment

Practical Decision-Making Map

If VIX < 20 and financing is positive: → Use 1.5-2.5 times Beta value to model the upward space.

If Trump's tariffs heat up and VIX > 22: → Use 1.3-1.5 times Beta value to monitor the bullish liquidation zone below.

If Bitcoin fluctuates ±2% and financing is weak: → Expect sideways consolidation, mean reversion to the liquidation cluster.

Conclusion: Volatility is Opportunity

XRP has demonstrated its characteristic as a Bitcoin volatility amplifier amidst the market turmoil triggered by Trump’s tariffs. The 2.5 times increase in Beta value is not a coincidence, but rather a result of the interplay between market structure, leveraged positions, and liquidity dynamics.

For traders, this asymmetry provides a clear risk-reward framework. Monitoring the VIX, tracking XRP futures financing and open interest, and keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff headlines, these three inputs are sufficient to construct a scenario map for the next 10 days.

After the $19 billion clearing reset system leverage, the market is refilling risk. The next 10% direction will be determined by these observable catalysts.