Bitcoin Price Prediction: Russian Experts Bullish on $130,000 but Xi-Trump Showdown is Key

Russian economist Taisiya Veprentseva predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will return to highs of 120,000 to 130,000 USD by the end of the year, but emphasizes that everything depends on the direction of the trade war following the Trump-Xi meeting.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: From Historical Highs to Severe Volatility

Economists and political analysts of the Delomant Group, Taisiya Veprentseva, made bold predictions about Bitcoin prices in an interview with the Russian news media Lenta.ru. Despite the market having just experienced a wave of severe turbulence, she still believes that Bitcoin is expected to return to the price level of 120,000 to 130,000 USD by the end of 2025.

The market performance at the beginning of this month seemed like a roller coaster ride. The BTC price once broke through the historic high of 126,000 USD, creating an exciting milestone. However, the good times didn't last long, as the price quickly fell back, briefly dipping below the 110,000 USD mark. According to CoinGecko data, during the weekend from October 10 to 11, the entire cryptocurrency market experienced a crash-style sell-off, with a market cap shrink of about 300 billion USD. This sharp decline caught many investors off guard, and a strong sense of panic filled the market.

Most analysts attribute this wave of decline to the renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. Concerns about the impending trade war have forced many investors with lower risk tolerance to choose to withdraw from risk assets like Bitcoin and turn to more conservative investment targets.

Geopolitics Driving Bitcoin Price Trends

Veprentseva emphasized in the interview that current Bitcoin price predictions can no longer rely solely on traditional technical analysis or fundamental research. Geopolitical factors, especially the developments in the relationship between Washington and Beijing, have become the core variables influencing market direction. She stated that in the coming weeks, the market will remain in a state of tension, and any news regarding US-China trade negotiations could trigger significant volatility.

This Russian economist explains that after experiencing such a sharp decline, some market participants will begin to cautiously rebuild their positions and expect a market rebound. However, institutional investors and professional traders who truly control large amounts of capital have adopted a more conservative strategy. They tend to wait for clarity on tariff issues and closely observe the Chinese government's response measures before making their next investment decisions. Therefore, any rebound is unlikely to occur quickly and strongly, as the market will be dominated by news events rather than fundamental factors.

Short-term Volatility Range and Year-end Price Outlook

(Source: CoinGecko)

Regarding the short-term trend of Bitcoin price prediction, Veprentseva believes that Bitcoin may stay between $100,000 and $115,000, during which it will regularly test the upper and lower boundaries of this range. This oscillating pattern reflects the internal contradictions of market participants: on one hand, they do not want to miss potential rebound opportunities, while on the other hand, they remain highly vigilant about geopolitical risks.

Her target price of $120,000 to $130,000 by the end of the year is not a figment of imagination, but is based on specific geopolitical scenario assumptions. If Washington and Beijing can engage in substantive negotiations and signal a de-escalation of trade tensions, market sentiment will shift rapidly. In this scenario, previously withdrawn investors will quickly return to risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. At that time, not only could Bitcoin rebound to $120,000 to $130,000, but altcoins could also recover most of their losses.

However, Veprentseva also issued a stern warning. If U.S. President Donald Trump continues with trade war-style hardline rhetoric and imposes more sanctions against China, the price of Bitcoin may face further risks of decline. She specifically pointed out that concerns over taking more retaliatory measures against China could lead the market to linger on the edge of panic. In such a pessimistic scenario, cryptocurrencies will continue to bear pressure, with the possibility of a new wave of sell-offs at any time, especially if U.S. stock market indices decline simultaneously, the situation will be even more severe.

The showdown between Xi and the River will determine the fate of the market

The analysis by this Russian economist highlights a key fact: in the current global economic environment, Bitcoin can no longer operate independently of traditional financial markets. Every move in the Trump administration's policy towards China and every response from the Chinese government will directly affect investors' attitudes towards risk assets. Bitcoin price predictions are no longer just support and resistance levels on technical charts, but rather a derivative result of the geopolitical game of the Xi-Trump meeting.

Investors must now pay attention to multiple aspects of information simultaneously. First is the substantive progress of the US-China trade negotiations, including whether the Trump administration will adjust its tariffs on China and any countermeasures that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce may take. Second is the movement of institutional investors; adjustments in large fund positions often reflect changes in market sentiment ahead of time. Additionally, the performance of the US stock market is also crucial, especially the trends of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, which will directly impact the risk sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

From a technical perspective, $115,000 is the upper limit of the short-term range, and breaking through this price requires a significant increase in trading volume. $100,000 is an important psychological support level, and once it is breached, it may trigger a larger-scale panic sell-off. $120,000, as the previous high, has now turned into an important resistance level, while the historical high of $126,000 is a key barrier that the bulls in the market must overcome.

Shanzhai Coins and the Overall Outlook of the Cryptocurrency Market

Veprentseva's analysis is not limited to Bitcoin price predictions; she has also expressed views on other crypto assets. Taking Toncoin (TON) as an example, she believes that if Telegram can resolve the recent frequent technical issues and ensure service stability, the price of TON may rebound to the range of $2.50 to $3. This shows that she believes the fundamentals of quality projects will ultimately still play a role, but in the current market environment, geopolitical factors have temporarily overshadowed these long-term values.

She holds a relatively optimistic attitude towards the overall altcoin market. In the scenario where Bitcoin returns to 120,000 to 130,000 USD, altcoins may recover most of their losses. However, investors need to be aware that the volatility of altcoins is usually significantly higher than that of Bitcoin, suffering deeper declines during market panic and experiencing sharper increases during market optimism.

In the face of the current highly uncertain market environment, investors need to be particularly cautious. Short-term traders may consider oscillating operations within the range of $100,000 to $115,000, but it is essential to strictly set stop-loss protection. Long-term investors should adopt a strategy of gradually building positions, avoiding heavy investments at a single price point. Regardless of the strategy adopted, closely monitoring the developments in US-China trade news is an indispensable task.