A 35% XRP Price Rally? One Metric Says “Yes,” Another Says “Wait”

XRP has steadied its price, climbing over 7% in the last 24 hours, proving its broader one-year uptrend of over 350% remains intact despite the market crash. While a key on-chain metric is flashing a rare signal that has historically preceded a 35% rally, caution remains as long-term holders show reluctance to commit fully.

1. The Key Bullish Signal: SOPR Reaches a Six-Month Low

One metric is strongly hinting that the selling pressure for XRP has been exhausted, setting up a major rebound opportunity: Key Technical Indicator (Spent Output Profit Ratio - SOPR): The SOPR, which tracks whether investors are selling at a profit (above 1) or a loss (below 1), dropped to 0.95. This is its lowest level in six months and a strong indication that most sellers are closing positions at a loss, often signaling the bottom before a price reversal.Historical Parallel: The last time SOPR hit a similar low (0.92 in April), XRP rebounded by 35%, climbing from $1.90 to $2.58 within a month.Rally Projection: A similar 35% move this time would place the next potential price target in the $3.10–$3.35 range.

2. The Cautionary Signal: Long-Term Holders Reduce Exposure

While the SOPR suggests a potential recovery, the long-term holders—often referred to as "smart money"—have slowed their accumulation: On-Chain Metric (Hodler Net Position Change): Data shows that long-term investors have been gradually reducing their positions, with accumulation slowing by 27% since early October. On October 2, long-term wallets added 163.68 million XRP, but by October 12, this figure dropped to 119.16 million XRP.Implication: This hesitation from long-term holders, who typically provide stability, suggests that any short-term rebound could remain fragile and range-bound until this key cohort starts buying again.

3. Technical Price Setup and Outlook

XRP's price action is currently consolidating and awaiting a breakout to confirm the bullish forecast: Consolidation Pattern: XRP is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart.Necessary Breakout: The immediate resistance sits near $2.72. A daily candle breakout above this level would confirm renewed buying strength and open the door to the 30%–40% rally projected by the SOPR metric.Bullish Price Targets: The confirmed rally would target $3.10, $3.35, and $3.66.Support Line: The bullish structure requires XRP to hold above the critical $2.30 support to prevent the prediction from being invalidated and the price from moving lower.

Conclusion

The technical setup for an XRP rally is strong, with the SOPR metric flashing a rare signal historically associated with a 35% rebound. While this projection targets the $3.10–$3.35 range, the lack of conviction from long-term holders introduces an element of fragility. The market is now waiting for a decisive daily breakout above $2.72 to confirm the move and validate the bullish outlook.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.