Elon Musk makes a trillion-dollar gamble, and the world enters an era of strongmen.

Article: Nusk, Deep Tide TechFlow

On November 7th early morning, Tesla shareholders cast an unprecedented vote, with over 75% approval, passing Elon Musk’s compensation plan valued at up to 1 trillion dollars.

After the voting results were announced, the scene erupted in enthusiastic cheers, with Tesla shareholders loudly shouting Musk’s name.

If this compensation agreement is fully realized, Musk will leap from the world’s richest person to the world’s first “trillion-dollar billionaire.”

Aiming for an 8.5 trillion dollar market cap

How can Musk achieve a trillion-dollar compensation?

According to public documents, Musk’s incentive plan is divided into 12 phases, each with clear market cap and operational goals.

The market cap targets start at 2 trillion dollars and ultimately reach 8.5 trillion dollars. Upon completing each phase, Musk will receive approximately 35.31 million shares. After all phases are completed, his ownership stake could increase from the current approximately 15% to 25%.

Of course, the market cap requirement is not just about a short-term surge to the target level; it must be maintained for at least 6 months to unlock.

In addition to the market cap requirement, each phase also has corresponding business objectives.

For example, the first phase requires achieving one of the 12 operational milestones, while the third phase requires completing any three of these milestones.

The twelve operational milestones:

1. Adjusted EBITDA: $50 billion

2. Adjusted EBITDA: $80 billion

3. Adjusted EBITDA: $130 billion

4. Adjusted EBITDA: $210 billion

5. Adjusted EBITDA: $300 billion

6. Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion

7. Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion

8. Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion

9. Cumulative vehicle deliveries: 20 million units

10. FSD users: 10 million

11. Robotaxi fleet: 1 million taxis

12. Humanoid robots: a total of 1 million robots delivered

These goals must be achieved within ten years, with some requiring sustained performance over a period to become effective.

According to these requirements, if Tesla achieves an adjusted EBITDA of $130 billion in a future year and a market cap of $3 trillion, it can unlock the first three phases, granting stock awards worth approximately $105 million. This is because an EBITDA of $130 billion indicates the company has reached three operational milestones (adjusted EBITDA of $50 billion, $80 billion, and $130 billion).

Is this achievable?

In the first nine months of 2025, Tesla’s net profit was $2.9 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $10.8 billion. It is projected that the adjusted EBITDA for 2025 will be $14.4 billion.

Based on this level, Tesla would need to grow at a compound annual rate of 51% to reach a $400 billion valuation by 2033, maintaining that level for two years.

This would require sales to jump from $93 billion to $2.5 trillion, which is nearly impossible from a cash flow perspective—an almost crazy task.

However, Tesla’s valuation has never been a result of cash flow models but rather a product of “narrative leverage.” If the story is compelling enough, the market will naturally assign a premium.

Narratives drive prices upward, and rising prices, in turn, validate the narrative.

People’s high valuation expectations and confidence in Tesla have always been based on “optionality”—any of its side businesses (AI, robotics, energy) could become new growth engines.

Therefore, the true significance of this incentive plan may not lie in the bonus amount itself but in how it aligns Musk’s strategic direction for the next decade:

Tesla must make breakthroughs in AI, energy, autonomous driving, and manufacturing to realize this “vision economy experiment.”

From this perspective, Tesla’s market cap goal is actually the easiest part of the plan to achieve.

The Era of Strong Leaders

In this vote, Musk’s gains go far beyond financial incentives.

If the plan is fully realized, his ownership stake will increase from 15% to about 25%, meaning a further concentration of governance power.

The capital market’s trust in Musk is almost religious.

Over 75% of shareholders supported this plan, even if it dilutes their own equity and weakens board checks and balances, they are willing to let Musk continue to steer Tesla’s destiny.

As a result, Tesla has shifted from a traditional public company to a “narrative platform” centered around its founder. Its valuation, strategy, branding, and technological pace are all tied to one person’s will.

Similar phenomena are playing out across various industries, signaling that the world is entering an era of strong leaders.

In AI, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are reinforcing the long-term dominance of core founders through their equity and voting mechanisms;

In the cryptocurrency world, many protocols also revolve around “core founders + token narratives.”

Founders provide stories and direction, capital provides resources and time, and governance rights are consciously ceded in exchange for ongoing narrative expansion.

The essence of the era of strong leaders is a collective voluntary surrender.

Investors, employees, regulators, and even society are, in the name of “growth” and “innovation,” transferring more power to a few individuals.

Lessons for Web3

Tesla’s equity incentives can also be seen as a kind of Tokenomics experiment.

In the crypto world, many projects release large portions of tokens to the team and founders immediately after the Token Generation Event (TGE).

Narrative-driven, with delayed realization, this has become a common structural flaw. Teams often cash out early after telling grand stories, while execution, products, and profits are delayed.

This “cash out first, build later” model may attract speculative capital in the short term but is difficult to sustain long-term innovation and trust.

Compared to that, Tesla’s compensation plan resembles a structured long-term incentive model.

Equity incentives are not granted upfront but are unlocked only after reaching specific market cap levels and maintaining them for a period; additionally, rewards are tied to tangible results, including revenue, profit, user adoption, or product deployment; ultimately, approval depends on shareholders.

For founders and teams to earn high returns, they must continuously drive growth in market cap, cash flow, and products.

If the crypto industry could adopt a similar structure—releasing tokens in sync with market cap performance and product milestones—it might filter out projects that truly generate cash flow and utility.

This could help Web3 move from “storytelling” to genuine “product delivery.”

But then again, I wonder—how many people would still want to start a Web3 project?