📊 ETH Level Structure Analysis #四月行情预测

1. 4-Hour Level (Major Direction Setting)
Trend Type: From the high of 2385.78, declines to complete a mid-term structure, with the lowest point at 1936.54 as a 4-hour buy signal.
Current Status: The 4-hour upward move launched from 1936 is ongoing and not finished, currently in the main rebound upward phase.
Key Level Validation: Successfully broke through the lower boundary of the mid-term structure at 2098, confirming a larger rebound trend. As long as it does not fall below 2025 (previous high support), the 4-hour upward move remains intact, targeting the upper boundary of the structure at 2150+.
Core Function: The larger upward trend provides a safety cushion for the 1-hour direction choice. Even if the 1-hour pulls back, it is considered a correction within an uptrend, not a reversal.
2. 1-Hour Level (Intermediate Direction Choice, Core)
1. Structural Qualitative Analysis
Starting from 1936, it followed a standard mid-term structure upward (yellow box structure, approximately 2020 ~ 2090). Currently, it is at the end of the structure exit phase, in a critical period of "extended upward move / turning downward."
Conditions for continuation upward: Break above the previous high of 2124.51 → Confirming a 1-hour upward extension, opening a new exit phase, targeting 2200+.
Conditions for reversal downward: Fall below 2081 (upper boundary of the structure / previous high support) → Confirming a 1-hour downward move, with the price entering a consolidation within the structure, completing the "trend → consolidation" structural shift.
Current price: 2110, exactly in the middle of two key levels, representing a typical pre-reversal equilibrium period. The direction is completely uncertain, and waiting for price confirmation is the only correct approach.
2. Divergence and Momentum Validation
Compared to the 1-hour exit segment (2020→2124) and entry segment (1936→2090), the MACD red bar area and DIF peaks are significantly weaker in the entry segment. The 1-hour bearish divergence signal still exists, which is the core driver for a "turning downward move."
However, the larger 4-hour upward move has not ended. After divergence, a direct reversal is not necessarily imminent; it could be digested through structure oscillation within the mid-term structure, then a new upward move could begin. This is the possibility of "extension" you mentioned.
3. 15-Minute Level (Minor Detail, Reversal Signal Source)
Trend Type: From 2019.85, the upward move peaked at 2124.51, then entered a consolidation phase within the structure (the red structure you drew, approximately 2090 ~ 2110).
Structural Significance: The 15-minute consolidation is a preparatory phase for the 1-hour "direction choice":
If the 15-minute breaks above the upper boundary of 2112 and stabilizes → it will drive the 1-hour upward move to extend, breaking 2124.
If the 15-minute falls below the lower boundary of 2090 → it will drive the 1-hour downward move, breaking 2081 and entering the structure.
Current State: The 15-minute MACD red bars are shrinking, DIF is flat, and bullish and bearish momentum are balanced. It is a typical pre-reversal sideways accumulation phase, with no clear direction. Waiting for a breakout is the only option.
1. Opportunity (Only suitable for ultra-short-term trading)
Only after breaking below 2081 and confirming the 1-hour downward move, try a small short position with a stop loss at 2095, targeting 2050-2060 (midline of the structure). Quick in and out.
Before breaking 2081, absolutely do not short to avoid counter-trend trading.
Good luck, traders!