There is also a foreign student from Tiongkok, who in 30 days directly raked in 400.000 dollars on Polymarket.

The method he used is actually Markov Chain plus help from Claude.
Even if you only half understand this, you can still follow along and gain a little benefit.
The logic behind this isn’t complicated; if you break it down into five rules:
1. Markov Property: No matter how the system spun in the past, the next step depends only on the current state.
2. State space: All possible situations that could appear in the system are all recorded.
3. Transition probability: The chance of moving from state A to state B.
4. Transition matrix: Making a table of the probabilities above, so you can directly see the flow of states.
5. Stable state: After a long enough time, the system will stop at a stable equilibrium point.
If you understand these five rules, then in market predictions, the probability of winning trading can stay stable between 55% and 65%.
The Tiongkok person I mentioned earlier is even more impressive—his win rate reaches 71%, and the profit in his account directly jumps to 418.000 dollars.
If you want to see it directly in the real market, here is his wallet address:
I will also throw in a few tough formulas I usually use to monitor the market—keep them safely so you don’t lose them:
Markov status calculation:
· How RSI is calculated: RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
· RS here is: Average gain over 14 days / Average loss over 14 days
· How to use it is easy: If RSI is above 70, consider selling; if below 30, consider buying.
Moving average line distribution:
· Simple Moving Average SMA: Sum of closing prices over N days divided by N.
· Exponential Moving Average EMA: Today’s price × k + yesterday’s EMA × (1 - k), where k = 2 / ((N + 1)).
· Formula: If the fast line crosses the slow line from bottom to top (golden cross), buy; if the fast line crosses the slow line from top to bottom (death cross), sell.
Calculate the final result using expected value EV:
EV = (Win rate p × Profit per win W) − (Loss rate q × Loss per loss L)
I tried using this formula with data from last week’s trading—win rate 66.3%, final net profit 780 dollars, not bad.
If you want to be lazy in Polymarket, I usually use a fairly stable robot; if you want to save time, you can click this:
#Polymarket