Recientemente, Alphadyne Asset Management, un fondo de cobertura con alrededor de 10.000 millones de dólares bajo gestión, sufrió cientos de millones de dólares en pérdidas tras el desplome del comercio base, con una caída del 8% en lo que va de año, lo que suscita preocupaciones sobre la posibilidad de pérdidas catastróficas para los fondos de cobertura multiestrategia.

La explosión de la tendencia de "comercio de basis" en el mercado de bonos de EE. UU. ha llevado a un aumento drástico en el rendimiento de los bonos del gobierno de EE. UU., la liquidez del mercado está tensa y los activos de riesgo enfrentan presión. Hyblock advierte que si el BTC cae a entre 73,800 y 74,400 dólares, se desencadenará una ola de liquidación de posiciones en largo, lo que agravará la caída. Los 70,000 dólares son un soporte clave, y si se rompe, podría provocar más liquidaciones.

Bitcoin se mantiene estable en medio de la volatilidad del mercado de valores estadounidense, lo que provoca entusiasmo en el mercado por su papel como activo refugio. Sin embargo, aún existe la posibilidad de una caída significativa a corto plazo, especialmente debido al riesgo de "operaciones de base en el mercado de bonos estadounidenses". Un posible estallido de una compra masiva de efectivo a nivel global podría llevar a la venta de activos como Bitcoin, una situación similar que ocurrió a mediados de marzo de 2020, con un volumen de transacciones básico de 500 mil millones.

Golden Finance reported that Nomura Securities stated that the European Central Bank is expected to only implement a 25 basis point rate cut once this year. Previously forecasted two rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. (Jinshi)

Goldman Sachs reported that it is expected that the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rate will reach 2% by June. It is expected that the Central Bank will not cut interest rates in July, while the previous forecast was a cut of 25 basis points. (FX168)

Según informes de Jinse Financial, el jefe de producto de Meta Platforms (META.O) señaló que en la actualidad, Meta AI es el asistente de inteligencia artificial más utilizado por mes, con un total de 700 millones de usuarios.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that in 2025, the orientation of monetary policy will shift towards moderately loose, with a total or cumulative adjustment of policy interest rates by 30-40 basis points, guiding the 5-year LPR to decline by 40-60 basis points. The interest rate cut window may open after the second quarter when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, and RRR cuts and reverse repurchase will release liquidity, supporting credit expansion. It is predicted that the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield in 2025 will be 1.5%-1.9%, with the Central Bank reducing by 40 basis points throughout the year, 1.64% may be a reasonable level. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Renminbi may fluctuate around 7.3.

Odaily Planet Daily News Federal Reserve Chairman Powell began a two-day congressional hearing on Tuesday. According to CME's 'Fed Watch' data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 6.5%, while the probability of no change is

Goldman Sachs and Citibank expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates twice this year, while Morgan Stanley predicts only one interest rate cut of 25 basis points. The tariff policy has brought uncertainty, and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has stated that further reductions in borrowing costs will depend on whether progress can be made in dropping them.

Deutsche Bank predicts that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again on January 30, lowering the deposit interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to gradually reduce interest rates at its four monetary policy meetings in the first half of 2025, with interest rates reaching 2% before mid-year. The decision of the European Central Bank will be based on factors such as the economy being below trend levels, inflation slightly below target, and facing downside risks.

El 29 de enero, ASML.O decidió no anunciar nuevos pedidos trimestralmente después de 2025

Goldman Sachs predicts that the UK's mid-term CPI outlook will soften, due to the subir in the economy, the slowing subir of household income, and the escalating trade tensions that may drag down economic activity, among other reasons. It is expected that the UK's Central Bank will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut at the February meeting, and the interest rate of the UK's Central Bank will drop to 3.25% by mid-2026.

Citigroup Research indicates that the bond market shows a higher sensitivity to inflation, and the first batch of actions taken by Trump after taking office is the risk faced by the market. Strategists believe that the emisión pressure of bonds in the euro area in January has been absorbed, and the yield on German 10-year government bonds rose by 0.4 basis points to 2.527% in early trading.

Odaily Daily Planet News HSBC Bank said it still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025.

Odaily Planet Daily News, Morgan Stanley: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025, each time by 25 basis points, while the previous forecast was for three 25s.

Odaily planet daily news According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate until December is 2.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 97.1%, up 1.1 from last Saturday.

Odaily Planet Daily News, the stock price has pumped nearly 500% so far this year, with a market capitalization of approximately 98 billion US dollars, much higher than its holdings value of 423,650 BTC (valued at slightly less than 43 billion US dollars at the current price). Since September 12th, the company has purchased an additional 197,150 BTC, significantly increasing its holdings and pushing up its cost basis. El analista de Bernstein afirma que, tras ser incluida en el índice Nasdaq 100, es posible que la empresa fije su mirada en 2025 para ser incluida en el índice S&P 500. Sin embargo, dado que el negocio de software empresarial de la empresa carece de rentabilidad, unirse a este índice podría ser aún más difícil. Con la estrategia de Bitcoin convirtiéndose en la actividad principal de la empresa, el negocio de software empresarial ha sido gradualmente dejado de lado.

Gate.io News December 5th, Jin Shi Data: Tianfeng Securities research report believes that looking forward to 2025, there is still a solid logical basis for bond bulls: pressure on the balance sheet, insufficient effective demand, and asset shortage. Monetary easing may be one of the most certain trading directions in 2025. Of course, attention should also be paid to the risk reminders of interest rate intervention and guidance by the Central Bank, which is not simply giving a lower limit of interest rates, but hopes to change the unilateral consistency expectation and behavior of the market and guide the phased adjustment of the interest rate curve. It is recommended to trade the bull and flat first at the beginning of 2025, and then watch the trend while walking, and see if there is a need for policy additions and bull steep changes in the middle of the year.

Según Golden Finance, JPMorgan estima que el Banco Central de Europa reducirá los tipos de interés en 50 puntos base en diciembre, antes de lo previsto en enero de 2025. (Jinshi)

Golden Finance reported that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that the Fed is considering lowering the overnight reverse repo interest rate by 5 basis points as a technical adjustment. Some participants indicated that it might be appropriate to consider resetting the overnight reverse repo interest rate to the lower end of the federal funds interest rate target range in the future.

Nomura Securities becomes the first broker globally to imply the end of the interest rate cut cycle by the Fed. The broker expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only at the meetings in March and June 2025, keeping the federal funds interest rate unchanged at 4.125% until next year. In contrast, other brokers still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next month's meeting.

Golden Finance reported that, according to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative decrease of 25 basis points is 65.1%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 23%, the probability of a cumulative decrease of 25 basis points is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative decrease of 50 basis points is 22.3%.

Odaily planet news After the Fed's rate cut, the US stock market maintained a pump, the yield of US government bonds narrowed, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 6.7 basis points to

Dowling Securities stated that the market expects Trump's victory to push up the neutral interest rate of the Fed. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, December, and January, and then pause the rate cuts in March. By the end of 2025, the interest rate will be lowered to 3.5%, which is higher than the previous forecast. In the first half of 2026, the Fed will cut interest rates to 3.0%.

Goldman Sachs says the UK Central Bank's interest rate decision in November faces the dual impact of downward inflation and budget expansion. The UK Central Bank's latest inflation forecast will reflect these two forces, potentially downwardly adjusting recent data, while inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 may be mildly adjusted upward. The Bank of England is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% this week, with approval from an 8 to 1 majority. However, the upward adjustment of the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 may indicate that the UK Central Bank will gradually take action in cautious easing policies.

Odaily Daily News As the results of the US presidential election are gradually released in the evening, traders have reduced their bets on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year. Traders in the interest rate futures market continue to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week and in December, but now expect the Fed to stop cutting interest rates after two 25 basis point cuts in the first half of 2025, with the federal funds interest rate target range falling to

Huajin Securities pointed out that the new stock and the new board sector continued to differentiate, with an average weekly increase of about -4.9%, and the proportion of achieving positive returns was about 16.4%. Although the investment enthusiasm has declined, the liquidity has significantly increased compared to September. Under the guidance of policy, industry, performance, and regulatory orientation, focus on the selection of targets based on scarcity and fund preferences, and appropriately consider the valuation cost-effectiveness, and operate on the basis of moderate enthusiasm, flexibility, and caution.

Odaily Planet Daily News, Patzalides, a member of the European Central Bank, said that it is only necessary to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in case of serious deterioration in the situation. The inflation rate is expected to reach 2% earlier than expected, and the inflation risk is relatively balanced. Subir faces downside risks, the European Central Bank in 12

Odaily Planet Daily News, Goldman Sachs research report pointed out that it is expected that the Banco Central of the United Kingdom will further reduce interest rates faster. Inflation/wage data and the recent communication of the Banco Central of the United Kingdom both indicate that the market generally believes that interest rates will be reduced by 25 basis points in November. If inflation continues to decline, the obstacles to accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts are low. Our economists still expect that by September 2025, the Banco Central of the United Kingdom will continue to cut interest rates until .

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the data, the increase in retail sales in the United States in September was slightly higher than expected, supporting the view that the economy will remain strong in the third quarter. Retail sales in the United States in September recorded a monthly rate of 0.4%, while the unadjusted increase in August was 0.1%. The signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, but it will strengthen the 25 basis points cut.

Odaily Planet Daily News Goldman Sachs said, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points consecutively between November 2024 and June 2025, and the final interest rate range will reach 3.25%-3.5%; It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and then will cut interest rates by 25 basis points continuously until the policy interest rate reaches in June 2025.

Odaily Planet Daily News The US dollar continued its upward trend from last week as the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a gradual pace of interest rate cuts, which generally supports the US dollar. The interexchange DXY US dollar index rose by 0.3%, erasing the decline of about two months. The Wall Street Journal US dollar index rose by 0.4%, also returning to the level of August. The US dollar rose by 0.5% against the Japanese yen and by 0.3% against the euro. The indicators announced this week are unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's 25 basis points interest rate cut next month.

Gold Finance reported that the one-year credit default swap in the United States rose to 48 basis points, the highest level since November 2023, according to Standard & Poor's Global Market Intelligence data.

Stournaras said the euro area's inflation rate could reach the 2% target in the first half of 2025, prompting policymakers to cut the interest rate faster than previously expected. He supports two more interest rate cuts of 25 basis points this year. Eurozone inflation fell to 1.8% in September, the first time it has been below the Banco Central's target since 2021. There is hardly any member in the Governing Council who fundamentally opposes the recent policy path of the Banco Central.

Odaily Planet Daily Citigroup predicts that the European Central Bank will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in October.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point interest rate cut last Wednesday, Ethereum has outperformed BTC. This pump momentum coincides with the significant pump in perpetual futures funding interest rate for ETH, indicating a stronger demand for long positions and traders' interest in ETH has not been closed.

Citibank USA predicts that the Fed will make one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, while brokerages such as Macquarie and Deutsche Bank hold expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts this year. In addition, the Morgan Stanley team expects officials to implement a series of regular rate cuts by mid-2025, with two rate cuts this year and four more in the first half of next year.

Odaily星球日报讯 花旗预计美联储将在 12 月降息 25 个punto base，之前的预测为降息 50 个punto base，维持 2024 年降息 125

UBS predicts that the Banco Central of the UK will keep the Tasa de interés of the banks unchanged, but will lower it again in November and pause the rate cut in December. UBS has adjusted its forecast for 2025, expecting a decrease of 150 basis points to 3.25% by the end of 2025. The practice of quarterly rate cuts is expected to continue until August 2025. The recent changes in energy prices are expected to bring the overall inflation rate back to 2% only in October 2025.

Gold Finance reported that the Federal Reserve cut its federal funds interest rate target range by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00%. U.S. stocks rose and then fell, with all three major indices falling. The Dow Jones fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.29%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.31%. Among them, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both reached new highs during the trading session.

Odaily Planet News The Federal Reserve has started a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, for 2020 3

Golden Finance reported that some institutions on Wall Street have predictions for the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday regarding Tasa de interés, as well as the forecasts for the remaining two meetings this year. Among the major banks, only JPMorgan Chase expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points today. Most institutions believe there will be a total cut of 75 basis points before the end of the year. Citigroup predicts that there will be two 50 basis points cuts after the September meeting.

Noticias de BlockBeats, el 18 de septiembre, según la recopilación de Jin10, varias instituciones financieras, incluyendo Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays y Citigroup, han pronosticado que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos reducirá las tasas de interés en 25 puntos básicos esta noche.

Odaily Planet Daily News Canada's Royal Bank continues to expect the United States to normalize rather than decline, with the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is expected to show a median rate cut of 75 basis points this year, higher than the 25 projected in July.

DBS Bank believes that the market's aggressive expectations for a Fed rate cut may trigger panic. The bank's economists point out that for the yield curve to reflect a cut of more than 200 basis points in the next 16 months, the US economy must significantly weaken and inflation must fall below 2%, which is unlikely to happen. It is expected that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, with a total of 150 basis points cut by the end of 2025.