Solana Price Prediction: Bitcoin ETF Outflows $1 Billion, SOL Reverses Trend with $120 Million Inflow

Last week, as the broader market declined, cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) capital outflows exceeded $1.2 billion. However, Solana price forecasts showed that the SOL ETF ultimately experienced positive capital inflows, clearly indicating that institutional investors remain optimistic about Solana’s price trajectory. Investors seem to have taken advantage of the strong sell-off in SOL—pushing its price below $150 last week—to buy the asset at a discount.

Institutional Capital Rotation: BTC and ETH Abandoned

(Source: CoinShares)

Last week, crypto ETF capital outflows surpassed $1.2 billion, marking one of the largest single-week outflows this year. Bitcoin ETFs were hit hardest, with investors withdrawing nearly $1 billion from these products. Such large-scale outflows typically occur during market panic or macroeconomic shocks, reflecting that institutional investors are reassessing risk exposure. Ethereum-linked funds also suffered significant losses, with assets decreasing by $432 million.

This dual outflow backdrop is an important macro environment factor to consider in Solana price forecasts. When mainstream crypto assets are sold off, it usually signals a shift toward cautious market sentiment, with investors reducing risk exposure or moving into cash. However, Solana’s contrary performance suggests that this outflow isn’t purely panic selling but rather active rotation among institutional funds across different crypto assets.

The $1 billion outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is substantial in absolute terms. Considering the total assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are around $60-70 billion, a $1 billion outflow accounts for less than 2%. Still, such a large withdrawal within a single week indicates concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Possible reasons include: Bitcoin repeatedly surging above and falling back from $110,000, indicating heavy overhead resistance; macroeconomic uncertainties prompting risk asset sell-offs; and rebalancing needs among institutional investors.

Similarly, the $432 million outflow from Ethereum ETFs is noteworthy. Ethereum ETF assets are much smaller, around $10-15 billion. The $432 million outflow represents about 3%, even higher proportionally than Bitcoin ETFs. This may reflect institutional disappointment with Ethereum’s recent underperformance and a shift in preference toward other high-performance Layer-1 blockchains like Solana.

SOL ETF Inflows of $118 Million Signal Confidence

In contrast, Solana ETFs attracted $118 million in capital inflows, which is highly significant in Solana price forecasts. This contrarian performance clearly demonstrates that institutional investors remain bullish on Solana’s price prospects. It appears investors have taken advantage of the recent sell-off (which pushed the token’s price below $150 last Monday) to buy at a discount. This “fear when others are greedy” strategy is characteristic of successful investors.

As of press time, two spot ETFs linked to Solana have accumulated a total of $782 million in assets. Given that Solana ETFs launched much more recently than Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this pace of asset accumulation is quite impressive. Among them, the Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL), launched only a few weeks ago, has gained a lead due to its higher staking rewards structure, attracting yield-focused investors.

Three Reasons for Solana ETF Contrarian Inflows

Valuation Advantage: SOL dipped below $150, offering a rare buying opportunity for institutions

Staking Yield Appeal: ETFs like BSOL provide staking rewards, creating additional income streams for investors

Technical Recognition: Institutions are optimistic about Solana’s high performance and its potential in DeFi and payments sectors

This capital rotation pattern offers important insights for Solana price forecasts. When institutions are selling BTC and ETH but buying SOL, it’s not simply a risk appetite shift but an active asset reallocation. Investors believe that at current valuations, Solana offers a better risk-reward ratio. This judgment may be based on in-depth research into Solana’s ecosystem growth, technological advancements, and market share gains.

The timing of this inflow—after SOL’s price touched the $150 support level—indicates that institutional investors possess precise technical analysis skills and market timing. They are not chasing high prices but patiently deploying capital near key support levels, demonstrating a more professional and sustainable approach.

Technical Analysis: Support at $155 and Target of $300

(Source: TradingView)

The daily chart of Solana shows that the token touched a critical demand zone at $155 and has rebounded noticeably over the past few days. Since mid-September, SOL has been in a downtrend, unable to hold above $200. However, recent ETF capital inflows may suggest that SOL has bottomed out and is beginning to rebound. Technically, Solana is forming a descending channel, with support near the lower boundary at $155, from which it has started to bounce.

If the rebound gains momentum, the first technical target would be a breakout above the descending channel. This would also require surpassing the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 200-day EMA is one of the most important long-term trend indicators; when the price is above it, the trend is generally considered bullish, and below it, bearish. Breaking above the 200-day EMA would be a clear trend reversal signal, attracting trend followers and algorithmic trading systems.

Should this occur, we could see SOL returning to the $200 region, with the potential to rise further toward $300, setting new all-time highs. Solana’s previous peak was $293.31 in November 2021. Reaching $300 would surpass that record. The move from $155 to $300 represents about a 93% increase, which is within a reasonable rebound range in crypto markets.

If SOL can regain the $200 level, it may quickly gather momentum toward $300, laying the groundwork for a new high. The $200 mark is a key psychological and technical level; breaking through it often attracts significant new buying interest. Additionally, volume analysis shows that trading in the $200–$250 range is relatively sparse, implying that once $200 is broken, the price could rapidly advance toward $250 before encountering the next significant resistance.