Gold strongly breaks through the triangular consolidation! The technical indicators suggest testing the key resistance at 3439, while Bitcoin's stagnation highlights the potential of safe-haven assets | Analysis of the correlation between gold and the crypto market.

Gold regained upward momentum on Tuesday, breaking through the intraday range to reach an 11-day high of $3389, successfully reclaiming the support of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Currently, the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of the symmetrical triangle structure at $3409, and if it breaks through the previous high of $3439, it will confirm the continuation of the long-term bullish cycle. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still hovering below $110,000, highlighting the divergence in the trends of safe-haven assets and crypto assets, which reflects changes in market risk appetite.

【Gold Technical Breakthrough: Key Moving Averages Recovered, Triangle Consolidation Nearing End】

(Source: TradingView)

Gold showed a bullish continuation signal on Tuesday, not only breaking through the intraday consolidation range (Inside Bar) but also reaching a new high of $3389 for the 11th day. During the session, the gold price quickly retraced to the 20-day ($3351) and 50-day moving averages ($3346) and found support to rebound, indicating that bulls have reasserted control over the market. The previous weekly high was broken, further confirming bullish momentum at the weekly level and laying the groundwork for testing the upper resistance of the symmetrical triangle.

[Key resistance and breakout target: 3439 is the decisive factor for bulls]

Currently, the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, with the latest swing high of $3409 closely coinciding with the boundary of the pattern. If this position can be broken, the next key target will be the previous high of $3439—closing above this level on a daily basis will confirm an upward breakout of the triangle and open up long-term rising potential. As the pattern gradually narrows, the breakout momentum is accelerating.

【Moving average support strengthens bullish logic, is the pullback a buying opportunity?】

This week's rebound has pushed gold prices to firmly stand above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, strengthening the bullish structure from a technical perspective. Historical data shows that a rapid rebound after a pullback to these moving averages is usually seen as a positive signal, indicating that the original resistance has transformed into effective support. This pattern often signals that a strong rising trend is about to emerge, although the overall market is still in a consolidation phase, the short-term trend is clearly leaning towards bullish.

【Gold and Bitcoin Performance Divergence: Safe-Haven Attributes vs Risk Assets】

It is noteworthy that as gold makes a strong breakout, Bitcoin continues to oscillate below the key resistance of $110,000. This divergence highlights the different market logic currently at play for the two asset classes: gold benefits from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts, while cryptocurrencies are more driven by risk appetite and liquidity expectations. Historical data shows that when gold breaks out of consolidation, Bitcoin often lags 3-5 trading days in choosing a direction, and investors should pay attention to the possibility of capital rotation.

[Long-term Perspective: High-level Consolidation and Accumulation, Long-term Bull Market Foundation Remains Unchanged]

The symmetrical triangle appears in the high area of the long-term rise trend of gold, which itself is a strong signal. However, a genuine breakthrough still needs confirmation—especially a daily close above $3439 will declare the end of the consolidation and open a new round of rising cycle. Before that, the gold price remains in a "coiled spring" state, ready to launch a trend market at any time.

[Support Defense: 3324-3311 is the last line of defense for the bulls]

On the downside support, the lower trendline of the triangle is currently near $3324, combined with the recent swing low of $3311 to form a double protection. As long as the gold price holds steady in this area, the overall bullish structure will remain intact, and any pullback could become a new entry opportunity.

[Conclusion]

The technical breakout of gold and the recovery of moving averages release a strong bullish signal, with $3439 becoming a key watershed for determining future market space. The short-term differentiation with Bitcoin highlights the unique advantages of safe-haven assets. If expectations for a Fed rate cut heat up, precious metals and the crypto market may see a synchronized pump again. Investors should closely monitor the breakout direction of the triangle and position themselves for a new round of trend opportunities.