The three major U.S. stock indexes rose together, approaching historical highs, while Bitcoin is under pressure at the $109,000 mark! Capital rotation intensifies the differentiation between the stock and crypto market | Global Asset Perspective on August 27, 2025

U.S. stocks made a strong push on Tuesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 breaking through the key resistance of 6450 points, and the Nasdaq and Dow both closing higher. Boeing led the Blue-Chip Stocks due to a large order of 50 billion dollars. The turbulence in Fed personnel and economic data exceeding expectations shaped the market's optimistic sentiment, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries falling to 4.26%, signaling a rise in interest rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovered around a seven-week low, while Ethereum showed resilience with inflows from ETFs, highlighting a shift in fund preferences amid a diverging crypto market.

U.S. stocks are rising across the board: driven by both policy and economic data

The US stock market fluctuated and closed higher on Tuesday (August 26), with the S&P 500 index rising 0.4% to 6465.94 points, just a step away from this month's historical high; the Dow Jones climbed 0.3% to 45418.07 points, and the Nasdaq also increased by 0.4%. The driving forces came from three aspects:

1. Fed personnel earthquake: Trump announces the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud, while Cook states that she will file a lawsuit in protest. This move is seen as Trump's further attempt to pressure the central bank into lowering interest rates.

2. Economic data exceeds expectations: July durable goods orders fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected -4%; the August CB Consumer Confidence Index of 97.4 also exceeded the consensus of 96.2, alleviating concerns about a hard landing for the economy.

3. Industry leaders benefit: Boeing rises 3.5% as Korean Air announces a $50 billion aircraft procurement plan; Dish Network's parent company EchoStar skyrockets 70.2%, benefiting from AT&T's $23 billion spectrum license acquisition.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has successfully held the support range of 6430-6440, with the next resistance pointing towards the historical high area of 6480-6490; if the Nasdaq can break through 23500 points, it may test the range of 23900-23950.

The semiconductor and interest rate-sensitive sectors are leading the rise, while energy stocks are under pressure.

The performance of sectors shows significant divergence:

1. The semiconductor sector continues to be strong: Chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD are leading the rise. A Bank of America report indicates that the demand cycle for AI chips is "only halfway through," with semiconductor sales expected to increase by another 15% to $725 billion by 2025.

2. Interest rate-sensitive sectors benefit: Financial and industrial stocks follow the decline in government bond yields (the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen to 4.26%), with the market pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September.

3. The energy sector declines alone: International oil prices have significantly adjusted, dragging down heavyweight stocks like ExxonMobil, with WTI crude oil falling over 3% in a day.

Bitcoin weakness hits a seven-week low, with funds continuing to flow into Ethereum.

The crypto market has clearly decoupled from the US stock market:

1. Bitcoin struggles at a key support: The BTC price briefly fell below $109,000 during the day, and the 100-day moving average is in jeopardy. The technical indicators show a bearish arrangement, and the shrinking trading volume reveals insufficient momentum.

2. Ethereum shows relative resilience: Although ETH has fallen from its historical high of $4955, it still maintains strong support at $4400. The Ethereum ETF in the US saw a net inflow of $3.3 billion in August, while the Bitcoin ETF experienced a net redemption of $1 billion during the same period, indicating a significant trend of capital switching.

3. Macroeconomic factors suppressing: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations should have been beneficial for risk assets, but Bitcoin's recent correlation with the US stock market has weakened, more affected by the internal liquidity rebalancing of the crypto market 510.

Market Outlook: Key Data and Technical Levels Set Short-Term Direction

Focus on two major catalysts in the next 24 hours:

1. PCE inflation data: If the core PCE index released on August 30 is lower than expected (previous value 2.6%), it may strengthen the logic for interest rate cuts, which would be beneficial for growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.

2. Nvidia Earnings Report: As a bellwether for AI chips, its performance guidance will determine whether the semiconductor sector can continue its leading momentum.

Asset allocation insights:

A. The US stock market is slightly bullish in the short term; if the S&P 500 breaks through 6490, it may open up new upward space.

B. Bitcoin needs to recover $110,000 to reverse the downturn; otherwise, the risk of dropping to $108,600 increases.

C. If Ethereum stabilizes above $4550, it is expected to make a strong push towards the $5000 mark.

Conclusion

U.S. stocks break upward amid policy games and economic resilience, with chip stocks and interest rate expectations serving as dual engines; the cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, witnesses a structural trend of "Ethereum rising, Bitcoin dormant." When traditional assets and digital assets show divergent trends, investors need to more finely identify the driving logic—U.S. stocks react to macro narratives, while the crypto market focuses on endogenous opportunities. The PCE data and Nvidia earnings report in the next 24 hours may become key weights to break the balance.