XRP rises against the trend in the crypto market! The October ETF battle is imminent, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are boosting Bitcoin's return to $110,000.

XRP made a strong rebound breaking through $3.01, leading the top ten crypto assets by market capitalization. The market is betting that the SEC's approval of the Spot ETF in October will act as a price catalyst. Although the SEC has postponed several XRP-specific ETF applications, the approval of multiple crypto asset ETFs by several institutions in July suggests a shift in regulatory attitude. Bitcoin also rebounded to $111,789, as expectations for Fed rate cuts increased, driving funds back into risk assets. The U.S. BTC Spot ETF ended six consecutive days of outflows. This article will analyze the key trends in the market from three dimensions: ETF progress, macro policies, and technical aspects.

[XRP ETF approval enters the October decisive period]

The SEC has postponed the final decision date for the XRP Spot ETF from institutions like WisdomTree until October, but market optimism remains unaffected. The approval of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) to convert to ETFs in July is significant—both include XRP asset allocation, indicating an increased probability of approval for a dedicated XRP ETF. The latest application for the "Made in America Crypto ETF" submitted by Canary Capital further strengthens this trend. Experts point out that if the SEC rejects the dedicated XRP ETF, it would contradict its logic in approving multi-asset ETFs that include XRP.

[Standardized Framework Accelerates ETF Ecosystem Expansion]

After BlackRock's talks with the SEC in May, Cboe, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange jointly submitted a 19b-4 rule change application in July, requesting the establishment of a standardized listing framework for commodity trust shares. On August 26, the SEC began soliciting public opinions. Multicoin Capital's legal advisor, Greg Xethalis, pointed out that the proposal will enhance approval efficiency through objective listing standards and expand the scope of qualified crypto assets (currently using three standards: trading on ISG member platforms, DCM futures trading for 6 months, and ETF-40%). After the standardized framework is implemented, the issuance of crypto Spot ETFs may experience explosive growth.

[XRP price dual-track expectation: 3.66 historical high point and 2.72 support game]

(Source: TradingView)

XRP surged 5.38% to close at $3.0132 on August 26, significantly outperforming the Crypto Assets market's rise of 2.53%. The price trend in the short term depends on five major catalysts:

1. XRP Spot ETF approval progress

2. Progress of central banks in various countries incorporating XRP into foreign exchange reserves.

3. Ripple's application for a banking license in the US.

4. The Competitive Landscape of SWIFT and Ripple in Cross-Border Payments

5. The legislative process of the CLARITY Act in the United States

Bull market scenario: If the ETF is approved/bank licenses are granted/reserve assets are adopted at an accelerated rate, the price may break through the historical high of $3.66 (Gate data) and move towards $5;

Bear market scenario: If regulation is delayed / SWIFT maintains monopoly / OCC rejects bank applications, the price may drop to the August 3 low of $2.7254.

[Bitcoin benefits from macro shift: Fed's rate cut probability in September rises to 87.2%]

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin rebounded 1.45% to $111,789 during the same period, ending a three-day decline. Key drivers include:

1. The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August (previous value 98.7), raising concerns about the labor market.

2. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole suggested a policy shift, and the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 87.2% probability of a rate cut in September.

3. The US BTC Spot ETF had a net inflow of $219.1 million on August 25, ending six consecutive days of outflows, with Fidelity's FBTC inflowing $14.5 million and Grayscale's mini trust inflowing $11.3 million.

This week's U.S. PCE price index data will be an important variable affecting interest rate cut expectations. If inflation data is mild, it may solidify the Bitcoin rebound trend.

[Conclusion: October is the decisive policy month for the crypto market]

XRP's rebound in conjunction with Bitcoin reveals the market's strong expectations for a policy shift. The approval of the XRP ETF in October, the Fed's interest rate decision, and the progress of the CLARITY Act will form a triple catalyst, suggesting that investors should pay attention to:

1. The SEC's final ruling on ETFs such as WisdomTree in October.

2. After the release of the US PCE data, the Fed's policy path adjustment.

3. Progress of Ripple's banking license application. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to inflation data exceeding expectations. In the medium to long term, whether the ETF is approved will determine if XRP can initiate an independent market.