Bitcoin approaches the short-term holder cost line! On-chain data warns that $107,000 is a pivotal point for bulls and bears | BTC price prediction

On-chain analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is rapidly approaching the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $107,000, a key psychological level that has historically determined asset trend reversals. The current price forms a technical resonance range with the 200-day simple moving average (MA) at $100,700, which could trigger significant market fluctuations if successfully tested. This article will analyze potential market turning point signals from three dimensions: on-chain data, historical patterns, and technical aspects.

[The Core Significance of Short-Term Holder Realization Price]

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the STH Realized Price for Bitcoin has recently continued to rise to $107,000, reflecting the average cost basis of buyers over the past 155 days. When the spot price is above this indicator, most holders are in an unrealized profit state; conversely, the overall situation falls into a loss. Since the STH group typically represents "weak hands" in the market, its reaction to the cost line often amplifies price fluctuations.

[Historical patterns reveal key support/resistance conversion mechanisms]

Historical data shows that the realization price of STH often becomes an important psychological boundary:

1. Bull market phase: When the price tests this line from top to bottom, STH usually sees it as a bottom-fishing opportunity to accelerate accumulation, forming dynamic support.

2. Bear Market Stage: When the price approaches this line from below, STH tends to close positions to stop losses and avoid losses, forming resistance. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen from a recent high to a daily low of $108,800, only 1.7% away from the $107,000 cost line, nearing the critical testing range.

[Technical analysis forms a double defense matrix]

Apart from the price achieved by STH, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA) is currently at $100,700, forming a technical support zone along with $107,000. This moving average is traditionally viewed by institutions as the dividing line between bull and bear markets for long-term trends, and the convergence of these two technical indicators significantly enhances the strategic importance of this area. If the price tests this range, both bulls and bears may engage in fierce competition.

[On-chain data and market sentiment correlation]

STH reflects the dynamic pricing of the cost structure of new incoming funds:

1. Recent indicators show that the entry price level for new funds continues to rise.

2. If the price breaks below this line, it may lead to panic selling, forming a negative feedback loop.

3. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has slightly rebounded to $109,800, but it has not escaped the danger zone.

Conclusion: Pay attention to on-chain data confirmation signals

The 107000-100700 USD range will become a key litmus test for Bitcoin's mid-term trend, and it is recommended that investors focus on:

1. On-chain STH holder changes: If there is no large-scale address reduction during the price testing period, the validity of support is enhanced.

2. Exchange net inflow: A sudden increase in deposit volume may indicate the accumulation of selling pressure.

3. Derivatives funding rate: Extreme negative rates may trigger a short squeeze. Friendly reminder: Short-term fluctuations may significantly increase, it is recommended to control leverage levels to prevent false breakout risks.