Japan's MetaPlanet becomes "Eastern Micro Strategy"? Holding 18,900 BTC, facing policy and premium challenges after a 480% rise in stock price this year.

The Japanese listed company MetaPlanet is following MicroStrategy's strategy by shifting its balance sheet towards Bitcoin, currently holding about 18,900 BTC (valued at $2.1 billion), with its stock price rising 480% this year. In the context where Japan has not yet approved a Spot Crypto Assets ETF and the cryptocurrency trading tax burden is as high as 55%, MetaPlanet's stock has temporarily become a compliant alternative channel for investors to indirectly allocate BTC. However, with the advancement of Japan's tax reform (proposing to reduce the crypto tax to 20%) and the development of the stablecoin JPYC, its "Bitcoin proxy" status is facing challenges.

Background: Transforming from hotel business to Bitcoin treasury, becoming a unique agency target in the Japanese market.

MetaPlanet was originally a hotel business company, later transformed into a Bitcoin asset holding entity. Due to Japan currently not introducing a Spot Crypto Assets ETF, and the highest tax on cryptocurrency trading gains reaching 55%, investors have turned to indirectly invest in Bitcoin through MetaPlanet stocks, making it a sort of "pseudo-ETF". The company was recently included in the FTSE index, further attracting passive capital inflows.

Risk: The stock price has a premium of over 400% relative to BTC net value, and policy changes may weaken the agency advantage.

According to an analysis by the Financial Times, MetaPlanet's stock price is trading at a premium of over 400% relative to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV). If BTC experiences a 30%-50% pullback, it may trigger a more significant drop in stock price. The company has repeatedly raised funds through stock and warrant issuances to purchase more BTC, which has driven growth but also raised concerns about equity dilution.

BeInCrypto points out that the high premium of MetaPlanet relies on a self-reinforcing cycle: high premium → financing ability → buying more BTC → maintaining the premium. However, this cycle may be broken when BTC falls. On the other hand, some analysts believe that its BTC holdings have a good record of returns and a low debt ratio, so the dilution impact may be lower than market concerns.

Latest update: Applying for the issuance of 555 million shares for overseas fundraising, holding BTC of 18,900 pieces.

MetaPlanet has recently submitted an overseas issuance application, planning to issue up to 555 million new shares. The company disclosed that its Bitcoin holdings have reached 18,991 BTC, valued at approximately $2.1 billion. Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 480%, but the actual volatility has reached 133.9% (Benchmark Research data), indicating a high level of risk.

Policy and Competition: Tax Reform and the ETF Process May Change the Market Landscape

The Japanese government's tax agency is discussing standardizing the cryptocurrency capital gains tax to 20% (the same as the stock tax rate), a significant decrease from the current highest rate of 55%. Meanwhile, the Japan Government Bond-backed stablecoin JPYC is emerging as a compliance liquidity tool. These changes may encourage investors to hold Bitcoin directly, weakening the agency value of MetaPlanet.

Bitwise Research Director André Dragosch stated: "Once Japan approves the Bitcoin ETF and advances crypto tax reform in 2026, the appeal of MetaPlanet as a Bitcoin proxy will significantly decline. Its recent mNAV premium contraction has partially reflected this expectation."

Industry Comparison: MicroStrategy has faced similar risks in the past, and premium cycles need to be maintained with caution.

In a bull market, Strategy also issues stocks at a NAV premium to purchase BTC, but with the emergence of more convenient investment channels such as ETFs, its premium level faces compression. MetaPlanet needs to manage the following risks:

1. Equity dilution caused by multiple issuances.

2. Premium contraction relative to the net value of BTC

3. The volatility of the stock price is higher than that of BTC itself.

4. The substitution risk brought by tax reform lowering the threshold for direct investment

5. Passive fund allocation adjustments may lead to capital outflows.

6. If the mNAV cycle is broken, it may trigger an industry "death spiral".

Expert Opinion: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist, Execution Ability is Key

1. André Dragosch (Bitwise): "MetaPlanet's BTC returns are solid, with low liabilities, and a high mNAV allows it to finance with minimal dilution. Past performance indicates that this model may persist."

2. Vincent Liu (Kronos Research): "Buying MetaPlanet stock is essentially a compliance-wrapped investment in Bitcoin."

3. UBS China Wealth Executive: "Second and third generation members of family offices are beginning to understand and participate in virtual currency investments."

Conclusion:

The MetaPlanet plans to build a large-scale Bitcoin treasury by 2027, but it needs to demonstrate the continued relevance of its equity channels against the backdrop of the rise of ETFs and direct investments. Capital discipline and cash buffers will become key defensive measures in an environment of premium compression. Investors should closely monitor the progress of Japanese policies and corporate financing activities, and rationally assess the premium risks.