Is 1 Million Dollar Bitcoin Realistic in the Next Cycle?

For many years, the milestone of 1 million USD/Bitcoin has often been regarded as more of a "clickbait" than a serious forecast. However, after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC and the increasingly tight supply-demand factors on-chain following the 2024 halving, the debate has shifted: this is not just a dreamy prospect, but also a practical portfolio allocation problem. How Have ETFs Changed the Game? In January 2024, the SEC officially approved the spot Bitcoin ETF, removing the biggest barrier for institutions such as pension funds, RIAs, and financial institutions that were previously unable to self-custody crypto. As a result, throughout 2025, the ETF cash flow is growing rapidly: The total AUM of the spot ETF group in the US exceeds 100 billion USD. IBIT is often mentioned when reaching important milestones regarding assets. This is important because the cash flow from ETFs is stable, adheres to portfolio allocation rules, and comes from institutional investors rather than just retail traders. This model is similar to the financialization of gold in previous decades. Mathematics of Scarcity After Halving The mechanism of Bitcoin cuts the block reward every 4 years. The halving in April 2024 reduces the new issuance, causing the supply from miners to shrink just as organizational demand increases. Another important point is "ancient supply" – the amount of coin that has been inactive for over 10 years. According to Fidelity Digital Assets, the growth rate of this group is higher than that of new issuance, meaning that the amount of "real liquidity" BTC is increasingly scarce. The combination of these two factors creates a picture of scarcity: New supply decreases. Many coins are "locked" by long-term investors. When demand suddenly increases, the impact on prices can be significantly amplified. Forecast Models for 1 Million USD Research organizations often present a scenario tree instead of a single number: ARK Invest (Big Ideas 2025): Base scenario for 2030: approximately 710,000 USD/BTC. Bull scenario: approximately 1.5 million USD/BTC, assuming multiple cases occur such as (remittance, businesses, countries, asset investment). However, to reach the milestone of 1 million, many converging conditions are needed: ETF deeply penetrates asset management channels. Businesses/countries incorporate BTC into their balance sheets. Custody infrastructure, accounting, and derivatives mature. Favorable or at least neutral policies. Reality 2025 Large banks are more cautious: Standard Chartered: predicts 135,000 USD (Q3/2025) and 200,000 USD (by the end of the year). This reflects a cyclical view, not a structural change. This means there is still a significant gap to 1 million USD. Organizational Wheel - And The Risks Growth Flywheel Easy access: ETFs allow funds and financial advisors to participate legally and transparently. Accumulated AUM: ETF cash flow is gradually increasing, leading to liquidity, derivative products, and research. Reduced volatility: Deeper derivatives market and liquidity help mitigate shocks compared to previous cycles. Benchmarking: As some CIOs adopt a weighting of 0.5%–1%, competitors will face pressure to follow. Potential risks Macro: A strong USD or rising real interest rates may restrain capital flows. Policy: Unfavorable regulations or negative rulings cause liquidity fluctuations. Centralization: Capital flows concentrate into a few large funds, creating systemic risk during times of stress. The Road (Assume ) To 1 Million USD A roadmap that can be envisioned, not forecasted: ETF expansion: If US pension funds and wealth managers increase their allocation from 0% to 0.5%, the additional cash flow could be hundreds of billions USD. Shrinking supply: Halving + ancient supply reduces the "float". Increasing allocation: As risk decreases, the allocation could rise to 1–2% of the portfolio. Globalization: ETFs in Europe, Asia expand, cross-border capital flows increase. Adoption by businesses/countries: Creates additional "bridge". If everything converges, the 2030 bull scenario (~1.5 million USD) becomes feasible. Critique and Verification Is the ETF just a one-time shock? → Monitor net inflows and allocations across multiple funds, avoid dependence on a single product. Too volatile to become an institutional asset? → Observe liquidity and the depth of the derivatives market over time. Macroeconomic risks? → If the USD is strong and interest rates are high, super-bull expectations will be stretched. Conclusion Fact: Bitcoin ETF has existed and raised hundreds of billions USD. Fact: Supply decreases after halving, "ancient supply" increases. Fact: Mainstream forecasts for 2025 range from 135,000 – 200,000 USD, far from the 1 million mark. 👉 Implication: 1 million USD may be the target of this decade (2030+), but to achieve it, many layers of adoption are needed. This is not a "guarantee", but a conditional scenario.