Investing in gold made 1.4 billion, resigning? Guohai's chief Jin Yi angrily refutes false news and has reported to the police.

With the recent gold prices hitting a historical high, an outrageous rumor has been spreading in the market: “I heard that Guohai's chief jinyi speculated on gold futures, turning a 30 million principal into 1.4 billion, and has resigned.” The news points to Guohai Securities' former chief fixed income analyst Jin Yi. In response, Jin Yi quickly stated, “It's fake news, and I have already reported it to the police,” and posted on his social media to refute the rumor, saying, “Rumors stop with the wise.”

Rumors Running Wild: Is 46x Profit Possible with Gold Futures?

The reason why this rumor was able to spread rapidly is closely related to the recent crazy performance of the gold market. According to Jin Yi himself, the earliest version he heard was “a certain macro chief,” and then the rumor kept transforming, eventually pointing to him. From a mathematical perspective, making 1.4 billion from 30 million means a profit multiplier of 46.67 times. Is this achievable in the gold futures market?

The leverage mechanism in the futures market can indeed greatly amplify returns. Previously, the margin ratio for maintaining positions in gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 13%, while the general position margin ratio was 14%. This means that as an individual engaged in general position trading, their investment leverage can be amplified to over 7 times.

Moreover, the unique floating profit margin mechanism in futures trading can further amplify returns. Industry insiders have analyzed that the investment returns of gold futures described in the aforementioned rumors, although theoretically possible to achieve through a floating profit margin strategy, also come with extremely high risks, making it a low-probability scenario in investing. This strategy requires investors to precisely judge market trends, continuously increasing positions with floating profits during the ongoing rise of gold, where any misjudgment could result in total loss.

Jin Yi has indeed resigned, but it has nothing to do with gold

Although Jin Yi clarified that the rumors of making a huge profit were false, he has indeed resigned from Guohai Securities. Jin Yi's employment information can no longer be found in the list of practitioners from the China Securities Association. His personal public account “Jin Yi Investment Thoughts,” which was previously updating the research reports of the Guohai Fixed Income Team, has remained at the article titled “How is the value for money in the bond market?” dated September 9, with the specifics of the next step currently unknown.

According to an article by “Guohai Securities Research,” Jin Yi has served as the assistant director of the Guohai Securities Research Institute and the chief analyst for fixed income, with 12 years of experience in bond market research, investment, and trading. He holds a Master of Science degree from Peking University and dual Bachelor's degrees in economics. He has previously served as the product director and investment manager in the asset management division of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, cumulatively managing bond scales exceeding 100 billion yuan, and ranked 2nd in the bond industry on the 2023 Crystal Ball overall rankings.

In the final research report titled “How is the Bond Market's Cost Performance?”, Jin Yi stated that from the perspective of interest rate system comparison and multi-asset valuation, the valuation of the bond market has been restored to a reasonable level over the past two years and is approaching the neutral level of the past five years, providing certain allocation cost performance. However, influenced by the rise in the stock market and the recovery of risk appetite, the short-term bond market may still face disturbances, and opportunities for long positions still need to wait.

Currently, the position of Chief Fixed Income Analyst at Jinyi Guohai is replaced by Yan Ziqi, the former fixed income analyst from Huazhang Securities. Yan Ziqi changed to Guohai Securities on September 22 and officially announced his joining the Guohai Securities Research Institute as Chief Fixed Income Analyst on the last day of the National Day holiday through his personal public account.

Gold's September increase marks the largest single-month increase in 14 years

The fundamental reason why this rumor can spread widely is that the gold market has indeed experienced an epic rise. Since the end of August, international gold prices have accelerated upward, with the London spot gold price soaring 12% in September alone, reaching a historical high of $4381.11 per ounce after the holiday. The main contract for gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by a cumulative 10.16% in September, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2011. On October 20, the main contract for gold futures on the NYSE reached a historical high of $4398 per ounce, soaring more than 28% in just 40 trading days since August 26.

Affected by the surge in international gold prices, the Shanghai gold futures contracts traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also seen a rapid increase. From August 26 to October 17, the Shanghai gold main contract surged by 28.31%, and on October 17, it briefly broke through the 1000 yuan/gram mark, reaching a maximum of 1001.96 yuan/gram. Looking at a longer time frame, since the low point of 369.82 yuan/gram on July 21, 2022, it has risen by a maximum of 632.14 yuan/gram, with a peak increase of 170.93%.

In such extreme market conditions, there are indeed some investors who have achieved considerable profits through gold futures, but very few investors are able to fully grasp the entire upward trend and continuously add to their positions with floating profits. More often, ordinary investors are forced to cut losses or miss out on the main upward movements during the volatility.

Shanghai Futures Exchange intervenes to regulate gold overheating

After a continuous surge in gold, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has taken action to regulate the market. On October 17, the exchange issued a notice stating that the international situation is complex and variable, and the precious metals market is experiencing significant fluctuations. It urges all relevant parties to take corresponding measures, remind investors to做好風險防範工作, invest rationally, and work together to maintain the stable operation of the market.

Specific regulatory measures include:

Limit Up and Limit Down Range: Gold and Silver futures contracts adjusted to 14%

Position Maintenance Margin: Adjusted to 15% (previously 13%)

General Margin Requirement: Adjusted to 16% (previously 14%)

Effective time: From the settlement at the close of trading on October 21, 2025.

The increase in the margin ratio means a decrease in leverage multiples, which will directly reduce the impact of speculative funds on the market and lower market volatility. For ordinary investors, this is also a clear signal from regulatory authorities to alert them to risks.

Gold Market Outlook: Institutions Bullish on Mid to Long Term

Regarding the subsequent trend of gold, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that whether from short-term price determinants such as anti-inflation and risk aversion, or from long-term price determinants such as currency and finance, it is expected that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the future. From a medium to long-term perspective, there are three factors that continue to drive the upward movement of gold prices: first, the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks to hedge against U.S. dollar credit risk; second, global gold ETFs have shifted from net sellers of gold to net buyers; third, in the future, gold prices will be driven by at least two rounds, namely, the monetary property and financial property driving together.

This rumor incident reminds investors to remain rational in the midst of the booming gold market. Although futures investments can amplify returns, they also magnify risks and are by no means a guaranteed shortcut to wealth.