Fed rate cut expectations drive global stocks to three consecutive gains, Bitcoin poised to break through the $100,000 mark

In November 2025, global stock markets rose for three consecutive days, driven by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. The MSCI World Index edged up 0.1%, with tech stocks showing strong performance. The cryptocurrency market, after experiencing sharp volatility, is showing initial signs of stabilization. Despite recent outflows of $1.94 billion from crypto funds, an inflow of $258 million last weekend has sparked renewed market optimism. Bitcoin found buying support at the $86,800 Fibonacci level, and technical indicators point to a potential short-term rebound toward the $94,000 resistance. Market analysts believe that an Asian IPO boom, combined with the Fed’s policy shift, may jointly propel Bitcoin back to the $100,000 milestone.

Global Risk Assets Rebound, Fed Rate Cut Expectations as Key Driver

Global equities have seen a rare three-day rally, with the MSCI World Index up 0.1% on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous two sessions. The core driver behind this market revival is the growing expectation of Fed rate cuts, as recent dovish comments from several Fed officials have completely shifted market sentiment. Fed Governor Christopher Waller became the latest central banker to voice support for rate cuts, echoing the sentiment of San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams, further boosting confidence in a December rate cut.

Interest rate futures now show traders pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, more than double the 42% odds from a week earlier. This sharp change stems from the Fed leadership’s tacit approval of Williams’ comments last Friday. Evercore ISI analysts Krishna Guha and Marco Casiraghi stated in a Monday report: “These remarks were likely approved by Powell and indicate that leadership expects to move ahead with a December rate cut.” Such clear policy signals have provided strong support for risk assets, especially after weeks of volatility caused by overvalued AI stocks and policy uncertainty.

Tech stocks have been the biggest winners in this rally. Asian equities rose 0.4% on Tuesday, led by chipmakers such as TSMC. In after-hours U.S. trading, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) rose 2.6% on reports it is ramping up direct competition with Nvidia in AI chips. In contrast, Nvidia’s stock edged down 1.5%, reflecting market sensitivity to shifts in the AI competitive landscape. Gold, the traditional safe-haven, has also benefited from rate cut expectations, climbing toward $4,150 per ounce as markets anticipate a looser monetary environment.

Crypto Fund Flows Show Signs of Recovery, XRP’s Inflows Draw Attention

After weeks of large-scale outflows, the cryptocurrency market is finally showing signs of stabilization. According to the latest CoinShares data, crypto investment products saw $1.94 billion in outflows last week, bringing the four-week total to $4.9 billion—the third largest outflow period on record since 2018. While these figures are concerning, a closer look at the micro structure of fund flows reveals some positive developments brewing.

The most encouraging change came late last week, as crypto investment products recorded $258 million in inflows after seven consecutive days of outflows. This “lower first, higher later” pattern often signals a turning point in market sentiment, especially as inflows after extreme selling pressure typically correspond with a market bottom. By asset class, flows were clearly differentiated: Bitcoin funds lost $1.27 billion, Ethereum funds saw $589 million withdrawn, Solana funds lost $156 million, while XRP funds bucked the trend with $89.3 million of inflows.

Key Crypto Market Fund Flow Data

Total outflow last week: $1.94 billion

Total outflow past four weeks: $4.9 billion (third largest on record)

Inflow last weekend: $258 million

XRP fund inflow: $89.3 million

Bitcoin fund outflow: $1.27 billion

Ethereum fund outflow: $589 million

Solana fund outflow: $156 million

XRP’s strong performance stands in sharp contrast to the overall weakness of the crypto market. Although XRP’s price fell 6.9% over the same period, funds continued to flow into related investment products. This “price down, volume up” divergence typically suggests institutional investors are actively building positions during pullbacks. On-chain data provider Nansen supports this view, showing that while “smart money” traders hold $325 million in Bitcoin short positions, they have established bullish short-term positions in XRP. This differentiated trading strategy reflects professional investors’ varying outlooks on different crypto assets and explains why XRP has shown relative resilience amid a weak broader market.

Looking at the macro trend, although recent outflows have been significant, the situation is not as bleak as the headline numbers suggest when viewed in a broader context. Total assets under management for crypto ETPs still exceed $110 billion, with recent outflows representing only a small portion. More importantly, the speed and scale of outflows are slowing, and the net inflow in the last few days may signal that the worst is over. Historically, sustained inflows after extreme outflows often correspond with strong price rebounds—this pattern has been repeatedly validated in the crypto market.

Asian IPO Boom, Bitkub’s Hong Kong Move Shows Confidence

While the global crypto market has been consolidating, Asia’s digital asset ecosystem is showing remarkable vitality. Thailand’s largest crypto exchange, Bitkub, is considering shifting its IPO from Thailand to Hong Kong—a decision driven by the harsh reality that the Thai stock market is down 10% YTD and at a five-year low. According to Bloomberg, Bitkub hopes to raise about $200 million in the IPO. Founded in 2018, Bitkub has a daily trading volume of about $66 million and is one of Southeast Asia’s most influential crypto trading platforms.

Bitkub’s move highlights the differing receptiveness of various capital markets toward crypto companies. The Thai stock market has been under pressure from trade concerns and political issues with Cambodia, with foreign investors selling over $3 billion in Thai stocks in 2025. In contrast, Hong Kong’s IPO market is booming: in the first ten months of 2025, Hong Kong raised about $28 billion through IPOs, up 209% YoY. This strong momentum has attracted several crypto companies, including Bitcoin Depot, to consider Hong Kong listings.

Chinese tech firms’ AI ambitions are also injecting new narratives into the crypto market. Alibaba Group rose for two consecutive days, with its main AI app surpassing 10 million downloads within a week of relaunch, marking initial success in developing products to rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Huawei is set to release a new flagship smartphone, further underscoring the resolve—emphasized by People’s Daily reports—to make high-tech independence and “new quality productivity” core to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan.

Winnie Wu, head of Asia-Pacific equity strategy at BofA Securities, told Bloomberg TV: “There are many hidden gems in the market. We remain optimistic for 2026, especially about China.” This optimism is spreading to crypto, with Asian investors seeking to diversify AI risk and viewing assets like Bitcoin as an important part of diversified portfolios. The region’s IPO boom and growing digital asset acceptance could provide crucial support for Bitcoin’s next rally.

Bitcoin Technicals Show Reversal Signs, $100,000 Target Back in Focus

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is showing early signs of a bottoming rebound. After weeks of heavy selling, Bitcoin successfully bounced from the $86,800 Fibonacci support, with buyers displaying strong defense at this key level. The daily chart shows Bitcoin trading in a descending channel, with resistance near $94,000—coinciding with the 20-day EMA and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.

Improving momentum indicators provide further support for a rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from near-30 oversold territory and shows early bullish divergence. This pattern often signals waning downside momentum and building rebound strength. From a trading strategy perspective, if Bitcoin can break above the short-term resistance at $90,800, it would confirm a short-term reversal and open the way for a rebound toward $94,000 and even $97,000—key Fibonacci retracement and previous technical resistance levels.

More bullish technical analyses suggest that if the current descending channel evolves into a bullish “falling wedge” pattern, Bitcoin’s next upside target would be around $107,000, fully recouping November’s losses. Within this technical framework, as long as Bitcoin stays above the $86,800 support, the bullish structure remains intact, offering investors a favorable risk-reward opportunity with limited downside. If Bitcoin closes strongly above $97,000, it could reignite market momentum and drive prices toward the psychological $100,000 barrier.

From the perspective of macro-technical convergence, the Fed’s potential policy pivot and Bitcoin’s improving technicals create a favorable synergy. History shows Bitcoin often performs well at the start of Fed rate cut cycles, thanks to improved global liquidity and rising risk appetite. If the Fed does cut rates in December as markets expect, it could be a key macro catalyst for Bitcoin’s year-end performance, with technical rebound room and positive fundamentals jointly propelling it toward the $100,000 target.

Conclusion

Global financial markets are at a subtle crossroads, with Fed rate cut expectations and Asian market vitality jointly shaping risk assets’ short-term trajectory. After extreme outflows, the crypto market is showing tentative signs of stabilization, with XRP’s contrarian inflow and Bitcoin’s technical improvement injecting some optimism. The boom in Hong Kong IPOs and Bitkub’s listing plans highlight Asia’s leadership in digital assets, while the Fed’s potential policy shift offers all risk assets possible liquidity support. With these factors converging, the narrative of Bitcoin returning to $100,000 is gaining momentum again, but investors should closely monitor the sustainability of fund inflows and key technical resistance levels.

FAQ

1. How do Fed rate cuts affect Bitcoin?

Fed rate cuts typically boost Bitcoin by increasing market liquidity and risk appetite. Historically, Bitcoin has performed strongly at the start of rate cut cycles. The current market sees a 90% chance of a December cut; if realized, it could be a key macro catalyst for a Bitcoin rebound.

2. What is the recent situation with crypto fund outflows?

Crypto investment products saw $1.94 billion in outflows last week and $4.9 billion over the past four weeks, the third largest on record. However, $258 million flowed back in last weekend, and XRP funds attracted $89.3 million against the trend, possibly signaling a sentiment shift.

3. What’s new in Asian crypto markets?

Thailand’s Bitkub is considering a Hong Kong IPO to raise $200 million. Hong Kong’s IPO fundraising in the first ten months is up 209% YoY, reaching $28 billion. Alibaba’s AI app saw over 10 million downloads in a week. Asia is becoming an emerging driver for crypto adoption.

4. What is Bitcoin’s current technical setup?

Bitcoin rebounded from the $86,800 Fibonacci support, with RSI recovering from oversold and showing bullish divergence. A break above $90,800 could open a move toward $94,000–$97,000. Holding above key support keeps the $100,000 upside in play.

5. Why is XRP performing strongly in a weak market?

XRP funds attracted $89.3 million in inflows despite a 6.9% price drop. Institutional investors may be building positions on the dip. Nansen data shows “smart money” holding bullish XRP positions, reflecting differentiated optimism from professional investors.