Memory prices surge 180%, Nanya Technology rallies! Bitcoin concept stocks boom then bust, mining machine demand cools down

In 2025, memory prices have entered a supercycle driven by AI demand and production capacity shifts among major manufacturers, leading to market shortages and price hikes. There have even been instances of “paused quotations” and “daily price changes.” In just the second half of the year, DDR4 prices surged by 180%, with supply shortages expected to continue. Leading manufacturers such as Nanya Technology (2408) and Winbond (2344) have indicated that the supply crunch could last until 2027, making memory stocks a key focus for investors.

Memory Supercycle: DDR4 Soars 180%, Nanya Technology and Winbond Benefit

(Source: PCPartPicker)

Memory prices in 2025 have entered a “supercycle,” with unprecedented market shortages and price hikes driven by both “AI demand” and “production capacity shifts by major manufacturers.” In just the second half of the year, DDR4 prices rose by 180%—a spike rarely seen in the memory industry over the past thirty years. The industry describes this as a phenomenon of “paused quotations” and “daily price changes,” reflecting an extreme supply-demand imbalance.

AI demand is the core driving force behind this memory supercycle. Generative AI model training and inference require massive amounts of memory, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5. Global tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to spend over $200 billion on AI capital expenditures in 2025, with a significant portion allocated to AI servers and memory purchases. This structural demand far exceeds past consumer electronics cycles, putting unprecedented order pressure on memory manufacturers.

Production capacity shifts among major players have further tightened supply. The three memory giants—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—have all shifted production from traditional DDR4 to higher-margin HBM and DDR5, causing a dramatic contraction in DDR4 supply. However, DDR4 remains the mainstream standard for PCs, laptops, and servers, and demand has not decreased accordingly, rapidly widening the supply-demand gap. While this capacity shift is a rational choice for manufacturers seeking to maximize profits, it has turned into a cost disaster for downstream computer makers.

With ongoing supply shortages, leading manufacturers including Nanya Technology (2408) and Winbond (2344) have stated that the shortage may persist until 2027, making memory stocks a key focus for investors. As a local Taiwanese memory manufacturer, Nanya Technology may not be able to compete with the three global giants in terms of technology and scale, but it has benefited from this wave of shortages, as customers have no choice but to place orders with second-tier manufacturers. Winbond, on the other hand, focuses on niche memory markets, with strong demand for its products in industrial and automotive sectors.

Three Main Features of the Memory Supercycle

Structural AI Demand: Generative AI drives explosive demand for HBM and DDR5, prompting a full-scale capacity shift.

Sharp Supply Contraction: The big three are cutting DDR4 production; second-tier manufacturers have limited capacity, widening the supply-demand gap.

Uncontrolled Price Increases: DDR4 prices up 180% in just half a year, with extreme phenomena such as “daily price changes.”

Bitcoin Concept Stocks: From Mining Frenzy to Collapse

In contrast, cryptocurrency prices have recently been on a steady decline. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,186 but has since experienced ongoing volatility and decline. Today (11/18), it even briefly fell below $90,000, with memory and Bitcoin concept stock investors experiencing a rollercoaster of fortunes. This stark contrast highlights the divergent destinies of different sub-sectors within the tech industry.

This brings to mind the earlier mining boom, when graphics card stocks such as Gigabyte (2376), MSI (2377), and AFOX (6150) soared. Between January 2017 and January 2018, many graphics card prices doubled. AFOX (6150) stock surged from around NT$20 in early 2017 to a record high of NT$420 in early April 2018, benefiting from an explosion in mining machine demand as graphics card and DRAM shortages pushed up prices. Gigabyte (2376) and MSI (2377) also saw their stock prices more than double, making 2017 a banner year for graphics card makers.

However, booms are often followed by rapid cooling. In 2018, Bitcoin prices declined, hitting a low of about $3,250 by the end of the year. The cryptocurrency market capitalization was slashed by more than 70%, and mining machine demand plummeted. AFOX’s once sky-high stock price also crashed from NT$420 to about NT$40, a 90% drop in just half a year. Gigabyte and MSI saw their stock prices fall back to pre-boom levels, and Bitcoin concept stocks experienced wild swings.

After the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, Bitcoin surged again, reaching over $60,000 in 2021 and triggering another mining boom. However, by 2022, the cryptocurrency market reversed sharply, with Bitcoin plummeting and a wave of graphics card sell-offs hitting the market. More importantly, with the maturation of ASIC mining machines—far surpassing GPU miners in efficiency—and Ethereum’s official consensus mechanism change in 2022, GPU mining quickly became obsolete. Graphics card makers could no longer rely on mining-driven shipment volumes.

Gigabyte’s Decade-Long Transformation: From Graphics Cards to AI Server Success

Despite the mining boom cooling off in 2017, and Gigabyte’s stock price dropping to a low of NT$36.2, the company’s server business strategy remained unaffected. Gigabyte began investing in server product lines as early as 2000, and by 2017, the server business was experiencing double-digit growth, marking a crucial turning point for the company. After 2018, Gigabyte’s server revenue officially surpassed NT$10 billion, accounting for around 20% of total revenue. This nearly decade-long strategic move proved visionary, laying a solid foundation for capturing the AI wave.

With the rapid rise of generative AI in 2023, global data centers kicked off a new round of “AI server mega-expansion.” Gigabyte’s years of investment in server R&D paid off: its focus on high-end GPU server products perfectly matched the hardware needs of AI computing, allowing it to benefit more than most peers. Since 2023, Gigabyte’s revenue has continued to hit record highs, with its stock price peaking at NT$394.5 in 2024.

The most significant turning point came in 2024, when server revenue share officially surpassed 50%. The company fully transitioned from a graphics card brand to an “AI server company.” Institutional forecasts project that servers will account for about 55% of revenue in 2025 and 61% in 2026, confirming Gigabyte’s successful pivot to an AI server supplier. This transformation allowed Gigabyte to avoid the fate of Bitcoin concept stock collapse and instead find new life amid the AI wave.

Memory Shortage to Continue Until 2027, Computer Makers Face Soaring Costs

Memory prices have continued to surge this year, with the industry describing the price increase as rare in the past thirty years and cost pressure rapidly passing on to PC and notebook manufacturers. This price hike also reveals underlying risks, especially as Gigabyte’s revenue growth has significantly lagged behind OEMs such as Wistron and Quanta this year, making it the first of the established AI server concept stocks to fall below its annual moving average.

Although manufacturers say they are prepared—ASUS, for instance, extended its procurement cycles in the first half of the year, with component and finished product inventories totaling four months—they believe short-term shortages will have limited impact on Q4. Gigabyte also stated that it maintains about one quarter of inventory through supply chain coordination, but admitted that rising memory prices will erode graphics card gross margins. Acer expects the PC market to remain flat or show slight growth next year, but sees DRAM supply as the biggest variable.

The real concern in the market is that the memory shortage could persist until 2027, with cost pressures gradually mounting to become the biggest variable for major computer manufacturers next year. If the shortage really lasts two years, computer makers will face a dilemma: raising product prices could undermine market competitiveness, while not raising prices will continue to squeeze gross margins. Such a predicament is rare in industry history, as past memory price surge cycles usually lasted only 6-12 months, allowing companies to cope via inventory management and price adjustments. A two-year shortage would completely disrupt supply chain and financial planning.

A deeper worry is that market demand may be suppressed. If rising memory costs drive PC and laptop prices too high, consumers may delay purchases, resulting in lower shipments. This demand contraction would, in turn, impact computer makers’ revenue and profits, creating a vicious cycle. Therefore, while the memory sector benefits in the short term, the long term could trigger structural adjustments across the entire industry chain.