Prediction market investors are betting that the current U.S. government shutdown will last for 10 days or longer.

On October 3, according to prediction market data, investors expect the U.S. government shutdown to last 10 days or longer. On the Kalshi platform, if the shutdown lasts more than 10 days, the contract trading price that triggers payment is $0.63, indicating that the market believes the probability of this happening is 63%; if the shutdown lasts more than 15 days, the corresponding probability for the contract payout is 40%. On the Polymarket platform, similar contracts show: the probability of the shutdown ending between October 10 and 14 is 34%, and the probability of it continuing beyond October 15 is 40%.