HUGE MSTR BUY SIGNAL:

BTC is sitting at 1.12× its 200-week moving average right now.

I went back and looked at every time this has happened before.

The forward returns are absolutely unhinged.

First, some context:

BTC: $66,337
200 WMA: $59,063
Ratio: 1.12×

This is NOT expensive bitcoin. This is bitcoin hovering just above its long-term mean.

Historically, this is the "boring" zone.

Boring has been very, very profitable.

Forward 6 months from this level:

• Median return: +33%
• 57% win rate
• Worst case: -11%
• Best case: +101%

Not bad. Not life-changing. But wait.

Forward 12 months:

• Median return: +111%
• 100% win rate
• WORST case was still +20%
• Best case: +150%

Every. Single. Time. Positive.

Forward 24 months:

• Median return: +233%
• 100% win rate
• Worst: +148%
• Best: +309%

The FLOOR was a 2.5× in two years.

Now here's where it gets stupid.

I ran the same analysis on MSTR.

Forward 12 months from this BTC/200WMA level:

• BTC median: +111%
• MSTR median: +370%

3.3× leverage. On a MEDIAN basis.

Forward 24 months:

• BTC median: +233%
• MSTR median: +896%

The median MSTR buyer at this ratio nearly 10×'d in two years.

The worst 24-month MSTR return? +284%.

The BEST? +1,178%.

Now the caveats because I'm not trying to get you rekt:

- Sample size is 7 observations, all from 2022-2023
- One cycle, one regime
- MSTR's structure has changed

But the signal is clear: when BTC is just chilling near its 200 WMA, historically that has been a gift.

And if you believed that and expressed it through MSTR, you got paid in multiples