April 1st Monthly Analysis

The Q2 of 2026 has already begun. Will this quarter continue to decline gradually, or will there be a reversal?

Review:
Recent market analyses have suggested that the trend will mainly be oscillatory, fluctuating around 65,500 to 69,300. Today’s movement followed yesterday’s analysis exactly, reaching the 69,300 resistance level and then pulling back.

This morning at 8:00, both the quarterly and monthly charts closed.

Quarterly Chart:
The overall trend remains upward and unchanged, just a correction after a significant rise.

Monthly Chart:
From the peak of 126K, five consecutive months of decline have been recorded. Today’s close shows a false bullish candle followed by a bearish candle, indicating that the bearish force from last month is still strong. The MACD on the monthly chart is approaching the zero line, suggesting that the downward momentum and amplitude are easing. Supported by the nearby zero line, this level coincides with the high point of the last bull market (November 2021) and the starting point of the previous rally (September 2024). Therefore, this level is likely to form a consolidation zone.

Daily Chart:
The daily chart strategy remains unchanged. The current level is in a sustained consolidation phase. Key focus should be on whether the daily MACD can form a bullish divergence, which could trigger a rebound. If a rebound occurs, resistance is expected around 73,000.

4-Hour Chart:
As expected yesterday, the price reached 69,300 and then retraced. This level also acts as resistance of the current downward trendline. For the market to strengthen, it needs to break through 69,300. Meanwhile, a pullback should not break below 67,700. Overall, this rebound phase has not yet fully concluded.

Summary: The larger timeframe aligns with the overall trend and investment strategy. Pay attention to the key levels mentioned above on smaller timeframes. As long as these levels are not broken, the bullish continuation can be expected.