2 factors that will determine LINK will increase by 35%

A large whale of Chainlink (LINK) has returned to the market, spending 2 million dollars to purchase 139,860 LINK at a price of 14.3 dollars. This wallet now holds a total of 147,553 LINK, marking a significant accumulation move.

Interestingly, this whale had previously made a profit of $161,000 from earlier trades, indicating a high level of confidence.

The size and timing of this investment reflect a strategy of accumulation before a period of potential market volatility, especially as LINK shows signs of technical compression.

Breakout or another rejection?

At the time of writing, LINK is trading at $13.11, down 3.06% in the last 24 hours. The price is compressing within a symmetrical triangle and a descending wedge, indicating clear signs of accumulation before a major move.

A breakout above the resistance level of $15.68 could open up a target around $18.18, equivalent to a 35% increase.

However, the continuous rejections near the area where the whales entered at $14.3 indicate that the bulls still face significant pressure from above.

Breaking below the support level of $12.57 will invalidate the bullish structure and may trigger a deeper correction. Therefore, this area remains very important for the next trend of LINK.

Source: TradingView## Does the low MVRV ratio support the next upward trend?

The MVRV Z score of LINK at the time of writing is 3.09, significantly lower than the overheated levels above 7 at the end of 2024.

This index indicates that most investors do not have too much unrealized profit, reducing the risk of a massive profit-taking wave.

History shows that the Z Index in the range of 2-3 often provides strong accumulation areas and marks the early stages of bullish trends. Therefore, the current MVRV level indicates a favorable reward-risk structure.

However, this also means that LINK needs to attract new demand to break out of the accumulation phase and create momentum towards higher price targets.

Source: Santiment## Are users gradually returning to Chainlink?

The number of active addresses has seen a slight increase, with 921 addresses recorded at the time of writing. Although still lower than the high activity periods at the end of 2024, this is a sign of steady recovery from the lows in March.

An increase in stable active addresses often reflects greater participation and usage of the network, both of which are very important for maintaining price movements.

Furthermore, the activity of recovering users can support a bullish scenario, especially when combined with favorable technical structures. This increase in activity suggests a renewed interest in LINK, although it has not yet reached its highest intensity.

Source: Santiment## Does the reserve data on the exchange confirm LINK accumulation?

The reserve data on the exchange has decreased by 3.11%, with a current total reserve value of $2.15 billion. This decrease indicates that investors are withdrawing LINK from exchanges. This often signals an intention to HODL rather than sell.

Furthermore, reducing reserves decreases immediate selling pressure and often appears before price increases. Combined with whale accumulation and improved on-chain sentiment, this trend further strengthens the bullish theory. Therefore, the behavior on the exchange aligns with the long-term accumulation phase.

Source: CryptoQuant## Conclusion

If the price of LINK breaks above $15.68 with strong trading volume, a 35% increase to $18.18 will become feasible. Accumulation by whales, low MVRV risk, decreasing exchange reserves, and stable user activity all support this outcome.

However, if it cannot hold above the support level of $12.57, the narrative may change. Therefore, the breakout area of LINK remains a decisive factor for the next major move.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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Dinh Dinh

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