The Federal Reserve (FED) meeting minutes: As of the May meeting, the risks of inflation and unemployment have risen, putting the policy in a dilemma.

On 29 May, the latest release of the minutes of the Fed’s May meeting showed that Fed staff acknowledged at their last meeting that they could face a “difficult trade-off” in the coming months, facing both rising inflation and rising unemployment. This outlook is supported by Fed officials’ estimates of increased recession risks. The simultaneous rise in inflation and unemployment will force commissioners to decide whether to prioritize tightening monetary policy to fight inflation or to cut interest rates to support economic growth and employment. As the economy adjusts to the higher import taxes proposed by the Trump administration, “almost all participants said inflation could be more persistent than expected”. The Fed expects inflation to rise “significantly” this year due to the impact of tariffs, while the job market is “expected to weaken significantly”, with the unemployment rate rising above the long-term expected level of full employment by the end of the year and will remain at that level for two years. ( gold ten )