For ordinary people, guessing the long-term trends of the market is essentially no different from gambling.

Many people believe that by analyzing the fundamentals, monitoring liquidity, and digging into the news, they are not gambling. However, if you ponder these few questions thoroughly, you will find that the truth is not that complicated:

What makes you think that the information you possess is the key variable that can influence the trend? Those details you have overlooked might just be the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

How can you guarantee that the information you have in hand hasn’t been tampered with? Those seemingly "objective" data analyses and "insider" news leaks, could they themselves be carefully designed bait just waiting for you to take the hook?

Let’s take a step back. Even if the information is true, does that mean your analytical method is necessarily correct? With the same data, some people are bullish while others are bearish. How can you be sure that your logic isn’t akin to carving a boat to seek a sword, already out of touch with market changes?

Even if everything before is right, can you guarantee that you can withstand the bumps in the process? A slight market pullback makes you panic, a little fluctuation makes you doubt yourself. Clearly, you've chosen the right direction, yet you can't endure the darkness before dawn, ultimately throwing away what is "correct" with your own hands.

How confident are you in combating those market manipulators lurking around? They can turn the situation around at will, creating panic during a washout, hoping you sell at a loss when the price is low—how can you ensure that you will survive until the day you make a profit?

The long-term trend has a long line, hiding too many reefs that are detrimental to you: sudden policy changes, inexplicable capital attacks, and even the loss of control over your own emotions... The longer you stay in the market, the greater the risk of being consumed by these variables.

So, don't blindly believe in the myth of "long-termism." For ordinary people, instead of stubbornly trying to guess trends to escape the fate of being manipulated by others, it's better to make yourself faster and more flexible—don't bet on the market direction, just take advantage of the market opportunities.