Strategy suggests pausing the increase of Bitcoin holdings, will the market迎来转折点?

Recently, the CEO of Strategy Company made a thought-provoking statement on social media: "Sometimes you just need to hold." This remark was interpreted by the market as a signal that the company might suspend the purchase of Bitcoin.

As the publicly listed company with the largest number of Bitcoin holdings in the world, Strategy has always adhered to the investment philosophy of "Bitcoin first." Investors have become accustomed to the company making "buy" its core strategy. Therefore, whenever Strategy suspends its purchasing activities, it draws significant market attention, especially in the context of having continuously increased its Bitcoin holdings for 13 weeks prior.

As of July 8, Strategy holds a total of 597,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 2.84% of the total Bitcoin supply. This figure not only far exceeds that of other publicly traded companies but is also 2.3 times the holdings of the top 100 publicly traded companies (excluding Strategy).

According to documents submitted by the company to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as of June 30, the digital assets of Strategy were valued at $64.36 billion, with an average cost of $70,982/coin. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, the fair value of its Bitcoin appreciated by $14 billion.

Strategy is not only an important player in the Bitcoin market but also a key factor influencing market sentiment. Looking at the data since 2025, the company's several pauses in purchasing Bitcoin have indicated that a short-term correction may occur. So, will this time be any different?

In order to continuously purchase Bitcoin, Strategy requires substantial financial support. The company has chosen to raise funds by issuing preferred shares. Since February 2025, Strategy has issued three types of preferred shares: STRF, STRK, and STRD, which have different yield mechanisms and risk priorities.

The core design of this financing structure is to allow the Strategy to continuously attract new capital without excessively diluting the equity of common shareholders, providing funding support for its ongoing purchase of Bitcoin, thereby maintaining a virtuous cycle of "issuing stock - purchasing Bitcoin - rising stock price."

From the market performance perspective, the stock of Strategy (MSTR) clearly outperforms Bitcoin itself, especially with the recent surge of "crypto US stocks". STRK and STRF, as earlier issued preferred stocks, have also shown excellent market performance, while the later issued STRD equally demonstrates impressive potential.

It is worth noting that senior executives within Strategy also participated in the purchase of preferred shares. According to disclosure documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, several executives, including the CEO and CFO, purchased the company's newly launched preferred shares. This "self-purchase" behavior is both a signal and reflects the company's strong confidence in future returns.

On June 5th, Strategy announced the public offering of 11,764,700 shares of 10.00% Series A perpetual Stride preferred stock, with an issue price of $85 per share, and the settlement is expected to be completed on June 10th, raising approximately $980 million. Recently, Strategy also announced the signing of a new sales agreement, planning to issue STRD stock to raise $4.2 billion, and it is expected to adopt a "demand-driven, phased" approach for ongoing financing.

However, while this high-leverage operation amplifies the book profits brought by the rise of Bitcoin, it also increases cash flow pressure, especially with the annual interest expenses of 8%~10% from preferred shares. As of now, MSTR's market capitalization is approximately $112.9 billion, with an enterprise valuation around $120 billion, corresponding to a net asset multiple of 1.7. Although it is still within a reasonable range, the sustainability of this valuation largely depends on the continued strength of Bitcoin prices and the stability of the external financing environment.

From a revenue perspective, the company's "self-sustaining" ability has declined. In 2024, the company's software business revenue was only $463 million, marking the lowest record since 2010. In the first quarter of 2025, total revenue was $111.1 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. However, subscription service revenue reached $37.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.6%, indicating that the company has made some progress in transitioning to cloud services and subscription models.

It is worth noting that Strategy is facing a class action lawsuit due to the adoption of new accounting standards. According to the new regulations, companies are required to measure cryptocurrency assets at fair value, which resulted in an unrealized loss of $5.9 billion disclosed for the first quarter of 2025, leading to an 8% drop in the stock price of MSTR during that quarter.

Currently, Strategy is developing a Bitcoin credit model that takes multiple factors into account to generate statistical data on Bitcoin risk and credit spreads. This indicates that the company's strategy is no longer limited to just purchasing Bitcoin, but is building a closed-loop system around the capitalization and financialization of Bitcoin.

Despite the risks, some analysts remain optimistic about Strategy. TD Cowen reiterated its "buy" rating on Strategy in its latest research report and maintained a target price of $590 per share. They believe that Strategy's "equity-Bitcoin cycle" model allows it to use stock issuance revenue to purchase more Bitcoin, thereby driving higher stock prices and further Bitcoin purchases, creating a virtuous cycle.

However, the prosperity of Strategy is largely based on the assumption that the price of Bitcoin remains stable or rises. In a sense, Strategy is no longer a traditional technology company, but rather a "Bitcoin high-leverage asset management platform" wrapped in software. In the future, the market will closely watch every move of Strategy, as well as the impact of Bitcoin price trends on it.