From a macro perspective, Ethereum has actually been stuck in a large range for these years, fluctuating between 1000 and 4000 from 2022 to 2025. The current issue is that the 4000 mark has been a significant barrier that cannot be crossed, becoming the biggest ceiling for $ETH. If one day it can truly break through 4000 and hold above it, the space above will be completely opened up, potentially reaching around 6000.

If this wave of market sentiment does not hold, and there is a chance of a correction at the monthly line level later, then the range of 800-1400 will be a very comfortable spot for spot positioning. Because if so many institutions working together still cannot break Ethereum's new high in this wave, it will greatly undermine market confidence. If this wave breaks through 4000 and stabilizes, even if there is a big drop later, it may only fall back to around 2000, and it is unlikely to return below 1000 again, because the narratives of ETH and BTC are gradually aligning, which means they are part of the asset allocation of Wall Street institutions. Even in the future bear market, it is unlikely to fall by eighty or ninety percent like before.
In the short term, the position at 3750 is quite critical. Whether it can break through directly determines if the bulls still have the strength to push upward. Further up, 3850 is an important threshold. If it can surpass this, it would aim to create a recent new high (targeting above 3941). Recently, it was once pressed down after hitting around 3735, indicating that the pressure at 3750 is still present, and the bulls have faced a temporary setback. Looking further down, 3520 is a defensive line. If this cannot be maintained, the short-term trend may need to adjust again.