Recently, the statements from Fed officials have sparked market interest in the direction of monetary policy. According to the interest rate dot plot from June this year, the Fed expects there may be two rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Considering there are only three meetings left in the second half—September, October, and December—this expectation is particularly noteworthy.

Analysis shows that most members of the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) tend to take a moderate and neutral stance, trying to seek a balance between economic growth, the job market, and inflation control. However, there is not complete agreement among the committee members regarding whether interest rate cuts will begin in September.

Only a few officials, such as Waller, Bowman, and Williams, have shown a positive attitude towards a possible interest rate cut in September. Daly, while hoping for three interest rate cuts in 2023, also stated that she could accept the situation of no rate cut in September.

Overall, most Fed governors still insist on the position of two rate cuts within the year. Achieving two rate cuts in the remaining three meetings is an acceptable option for them. Recently, some governors have begun to send signals of easing, which may be a preparation for future policy adjustments.

Market participants need to closely follow the remarks of Fed officials and economic data to more accurately predict the direction of monetary policy in the coming months. In any case, the decisions of the Fed will continue to have a significant impact on the global financial markets.