Crypto Assets Market Short-term Trend Analysis: Follow October Effect, Interest Rate Cut Impact, and Technical Upgrades

Recently, an analyst from a well-known financial institution released a research report that delves into the key factors that may impact the Crypto Assets market in the coming months. These factors include the seasonal "October Effect," the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy, and the upcoming technical upgrade of Ethereum.

October Effect: The Traditional Bull Market Month for Crypto Assets

Analysts point out that October has historically been a month of growth for the Crypto Assets market, a phenomenon known as the "October Effect". Data shows that over 70% of Octobers in the past decade have seen Bitcoin achieve positive returns. Although past performance cannot fully predict the future, this trend may have a positive impact on market sentiment, potentially driving Bitcoin's performance this October.

The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Crypto Assets has yet to materialize.

Although the Federal Reserve recently implemented a rate cut policy, analysts have found that the overall Crypto Assets market has not shown the expected positive response. Data shows that the correlation between the overall Crypto Assets market value and the federal funds rate remains weak, at only 0.46. Analysts believe that the market may still be waiting for more lasting stability before making a clear directional adjustment.

It is worth noting that due to the relatively late emergence of Crypto Assets, there is a lack of sufficient historical data to accurately predict their response to interest rate cycles. Analysts point out that the stability of interest rates may be more favorable for the crypto market compared to low interest rates.

Bitcoin ETF options are expected to enhance market liquidity

The recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading is seen as another potential market catalyst. Analysts expect this could enhance market liquidity and attract more new participants into the market. Through options, investors can interact with the ETF more flexibly, thereby boosting the liquidity of the underlying assets. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, improving market structure and facilitating institutional investors' entry into the crypto assets space.

Ethereum Pectra Upgrade: Long-term Impacts Worth Following

The upcoming Ethereum "Pectra" upgrade is also one of the market's focal points. This upgrade will implement over 30 Ethereum Improvement Proposals aimed at enhancing network efficiency, optimizing validator operations, and expanding account abstraction capabilities. Analysts believe that while the Pectra upgrade will have a profound impact on Ethereum's functionality, its main significance lies in structural improvements, and it may not serve as a direct catalyst for price increases in the short term.

Conclusion

Overall, analysts believe that the Crypto Assets market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. The sensitivity of the encryption ecosystem to macro factors is gradually increasing, and market participants are looking for the next important catalyst that can enhance retail participation and bring long-term growth to the ecosystem.