Market Analysis on August 16, 2025

ETH's market is currently facing the biggest test since the recent major upward trend. The reason this test is significant is mainly due to the strong pressure from historical peaks. Even for a strong asset like BTC, breaking through historical peaks has historically required multiple tests, whether through repeated failed breakouts or sideways accumulation followed by a strong bullish candle breaking through directly. It seems that the pressure on Ethereum makes the probability of a strong and direct breakout in the short term relatively low. If it cannot return to the 4800 level in the next day or two to attempt a breakthrough, it means there will be at least 1-2 weeks of sideways accumulation, or possibly even longer.
However, I don't think we need to worry too much; time is still on our side. Today I saw the news about the meeting between Trump and Putin. Their historic meeting may ease conflicts in certain regions, and peace is definitely a good thing for risk assets. Additionally, I checked the daily trends of the US stock market, and everything seems normal. The sharp decline in daily lines from the past two weeks has been corrected, and new highs have been reached. Although the interest rate cut in September has been affected by abnormal PPI data, the probability still looks quite large at the moment. Overall, the external systemic risks are currently within a controllable range. If we follow the cryptocurrency cycle of four years, the peak is likely to be seen in October at the earliest, so we still have at least a month and a half left.
Continuing to look at the purchasing situation of Ethereum MicroStrategy, this is the core buying force for Ethereum at present. According to Surf's data, BMNT purchased 28,650 Ethereum in the past 24 hours, worth 1.