As soon as the market experiences a big pump, some people predict how high it will rise in the future, leading to a bull run.

As long as the market continues to fall for a few days, there are predictions about how much it will drop next, and the bull run is about to end.

In the past couple of days, the leading cryptocurrencies have seen a pullback, and some people have started saying that this round is a trap for the bulls, and there will be a big drop next. When there is a rise, they say it will continue to rise, and when there is a drop, they say it will keep dropping. Is there still a need for professional analysis? Isn’t it enough to just buy and sell based on the market trends? The answer is obviously no; otherwise, anyone could make money.

A bull run is a relay race, not a 100-meter sprint. Each rising cycle in the crypto market has its inherent operational context. Grasping this context is often more crucial than closely monitoring the market; it can indicate where capital is currently flowing and where you should position yourself. To survive in the crypto space for the long term, it relies on contemplating the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than determining future prices based on short-term market movements.

For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety about holding positions will actually always exist, especially now when they have just seen hope and their accounts have floating profits. Many people fail to achieve big results because during this period of high-level fluctuations, they experience psychological issues that lead to random operations. Either they listen to others saying they want to do a small wave, or they hear someone say they want to open a short position, or they hear others talking about chasing certain worthless coins. They always listen to others, but have no independent thinking and operational plans of their own.

Recently, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and people in the community started predicting that ETH would go to 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most of those who are optimistic about ETH now were still criticizing ETH and praising SOL just a few months ago, believing that this second-tier coin was garbage and would definitely fall below 1k. As seasoned investors, we have experienced too many of these scenarios. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their opinions, but some shouts in public are profit-driven. If you follow along without thinking, using your hard-earned money to make investments, subscription fees might earn you a little, trading fee rebates might earn you a little, and liquidation losses might earn others a little. Have you heard of the left hand and right hand holding positions?

If not, you will understand after trying a few times.

It was discussed a long time ago why the market has been dragging its feet. First, the interest rate cut cycle of 2025 has not yet begun. Second, the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, making the market's trading methods completely different from before. The current time node is the most torturous; seasoned investors know that when the price reaches this level, it's a turning point where the bulls and bears exchange insults. The market at the critical point is like this: it allows those who firmly believe in a bullish trend to see hope, while also giving brave short-sellers the courage to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there was no glimmer of hope, how could anyone place a bet?

Regarding the analysis of market trends, we have actually discussed a lot before. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not peaked yet. The daily chart is experiencing a short-term pullback, and it should continue to fluctuate and pull back in the next few days. I will wait for the signals of a stop-loss reversal based on the psychological support levels at round numbers in the market. For BTC, I am looking at 11W, and for ETH, I am looking at 4K. If these values appear, even if they break below, my small short-term positions will be activated to enter the market and make some small swings.

As for the long-term positions, the necessary adjustments have been completed, and the dry powder for short positions is also ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held have yielded normal returns, and how the final returns will turn out can only be verified by time.

Unknowingly, we have arrived at mid-August. BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the lows of early April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull run initiates, it generally takes about 5-6 months to reach the peak. This means that if we rely on the trend of the previous cycle to seek a solution at this moment, the final peak may appear in the next two months.

Although some well-known analysts believe that, considering the current economic environment and institutional holdings, this round of bull run cycle may extend into the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH may even experience a "long and weary" bull run, this statement has a certain probability. However, many retail investors actually do not hold these two leading coins. Even seasoned investors were left behind when ETH experienced a significant retreat in the first half of the year. Therefore, regarding this expectation, I suggest creating a data model based on your own position. First, set a target selling price for your expected profit, and ensure that you secure profits while gradually selling out according to a phase-based DCA strategy. Even if the highest price you expect does not materialize, leaving some positions to hold these two coins long-term may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, it will give you a big surprise?

What everyone is most afraid of is that there will be no obvious altcoin season coming up, or that the altcoins in hand will only be a fleeting moment, or that they will not recover. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. I have discussed this a few times in previous updates and have had intermittent chats with some friends in the comments section, and everyone believes that the probability of a bull run in altcoins is still quite high. But if you haven't positioned yourself in mainstream altcoins right now, the upcoming time will likely not be much related to you.

Why do I still believe there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I have organized my thoughts and will analyze from the following four directions why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 25 is still worth looking forward to.

First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus is still clear: every round of bull run is driven by BTC pulling in funds, and then these funds flow into ETH, eventually spreading to smaller market cap altcoins. This is not a man-made operation, but a natural phenomenon resulting from market consensus and human greed. The cyclical pattern of this capital flow will not change due to individual will. As long as there is a consensus on the cyclical nature of bull and bear markets, and as long as investors still experience greed and fear, the altcoin season will inevitably come.

You might say that this is now an institution-led bull run, and institutions look down on those altcoins. After experiencing the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly understand that the world is just a makeshift stage, and institutions come in all sizes; institutions are greedy too. Is the fund under Trump an institution? Is Meitu Xiuxiu an institution? Even is our disguised GJ team an institution? The games played by institutions create market volatility, and the games played by institutions also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is heat and liquidity, capital tends to pursue profit.

Capital always chases maximum returns, and a large amount of institutional funds has clearly accelerated the layout of the cryptocurrency market, especially since May, when there has been unprecedented inflow of funds into ETH ecosystem-related projects, which directly boosts market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach high levels, large-scale capital investments will push up coin prices, but the investment returns continue to decline. At this time, capital will inevitably turn to smaller market cap coins that are easier to achieve huge short-term returns, and this balance of returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been reminded several times long ago that institutional funds will most likely only flow into higher market cap coins with foundational applications, high market holding, good narratives, and some years of existence, especially mainstream altcoins with U.S. attributes that are on the ETF list.

Secondly, technology is a key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, and market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology-driven concepts and narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing sufficient space for speculation in the altcoin market. Although the emergence of inscriptions and symbols in 2024 has sacrificed a large number of retail investors due to the MEME craze, as we enter 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in multiple areas such as high-performance supply chain expansion solutions (L1 public chains), the combination of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). These areas will provide new market expectations and are more likely to attract incremental funds from outside the market, looking for the next potential asset for a hundredfold growth.

Thirdly, reviewing the market trends from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many quality mainstream altcoins have completed the accumulation of chips, especially new public chains or functional coins with relatively high market capitalization. Large funds, through a year and a half of pumps and dumps, should have completed the layout of chips at lower levels, which gives me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.

Referencing the mainstream cryptocurrencies like XRP, TRX, SUI, BNB from 2024, and then observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE, etc. in 2025, if you can hold firmly at this moment, just don't have too high expectations and patiently wait for market sentiment changes and opportunities to resonate, there is a high probability that you can steadily and easily capture a 1-2 times rise. However, it is important to remind that now is no longer the best time to layout and enter the market. Friends who have been paying attention to my updates for a long time will have a better understanding of the reasons behind this.

Of course, you can also choose to strategically allocate some ETH layer 2 ecosystem or other leading projects in different sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, etc. However, these types of coins, which are reliant on market hot spots and capital rotation, come with significantly higher risks compared to the earlier high market cap established projects.

As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX and the like are not recommended, it's because they have already experienced a rise in 2024, and the potential for further increase is limited, making their cost-performance ratio not very high.

Fourth, from a macro environment perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 95%, and the trade war tariffs have also been delayed. The global economy is showing a clear trend of liquidity easing, and major central banks are continuing to release liquidity. As I write this, I also see news of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine discussing a ceasefire. Aside from the interest rate hike in Japan, I can't think of any other potential black swan events in the future, so in the coming months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.

When ETH hits the 5000 mark and surges with volume (like BTC breaking through 73,000 and charging towards 100,000), as several altcoins experience a single-day rise of 100%-300%, retail investors in the market will inevitably feel FOMO. Mainstream altcoins with relatively high consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in such an environment.

The signs of this situation have actually appeared. The rise of OKB can be regarded as a starting signal. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme 20%-30% pullback, I firmly believe that the current major direction will not change. The bull run has not ended; it just needs to extend its cycle. The high peaks of BTC and ETH will likely still appear, and a local altcoin bull run is bound to come.

Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone has different personalities and positions. Therefore, I would still advise you to be cautious and make rational decisions. Only by carefully considering your action plan and thoroughly simulating your operation plan can you possibly seize your bull run gains in the end amidst the frenzy.

Remember, the greater the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends who have high awareness. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments. #机构以太坊储备破1000万枚#