Bitcoin falls below $113,000! Retail investor demand plummets 5.7% in a week, while whales buy the dip with 16,000 BTC, signaling the bottom | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $112,828 on August 22, a 9.3% pullback from the historical high of $124,128 on August 14, with the monthly decline widening to 6%. On-chain data shows that retail investor demand decreased by 5.7% over the week, but whales increased their holdings by over 16,000 BTC in the past 7 days. Technical analysis indicates that short-term holders have fallen into losses, and the market may be in an early reset phase, with the $112,000 support level becoming the focal point of the bulls and bears.

Demand differentiation: the game between retail investors retreating and whales bottom-fishing

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn points out key trend changes:

• Retail investor demand cools: Demand from small buyers decreased by 5.7% in the past week, as these investors tend to withdraw quickly during price fluctuations.
• Whale counter-cyclical layout: On-chain data shows that large holders have increased their holdings by over 16,000 BTC in the past 7 days. Similar operations previously triggered a brief rebound earlier this month. Bitcoin has tested the previous high support level of $112,000 twice in a short period; multiple tests may weaken the support.

on-chain signal: market reset early stage initiated

Glassnode data on August 21 reveals the key breakeven point:

• Short-term holder cost range: Investors who bought between 113000-120000 USD are currently in a slight loss (SOPR ratio 0.96-1.01)
• Bottom formation conditions: Historical data shows that when the SOPR ratio approaches 0.9, a local bottom often forms. The current value indicates that the market is only in the early stage of resetting. Derivatives market cooling simultaneously: Daily spot trading volume decreased by 23.9% to $31.58 billion, while futures open interest slightly increased by 0.3%, but trading volume dropped by 16.7%, reflecting that traders have shifted to cautious positions.

Technical Analysis: Testing the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands Determines Short-Term Direction

(Source: TradingView)

Key technical indicators present conflicting signals:

• Pressure indicators: MACD shows a death cross, short-term moving averages (10-50 days) continue to exert pressure, RSI drops to 42 and maintains a downward trend.
• Support factors: Long-term moving averages (100-200 days) still provide support, and the Williams Percent Range along with the Stochastic RSI suggest a potential short-term rebound. If the $112,000 support holds effectively, Bitcoin may rebound to test $118,000; if it fails, the key support zone looks at $105,000-$108,000.

Market Outlook: Can Whale Accumulation Reverse the Downtrend

Whale accumulation behavior is often seen as a leading indicator, but it remains to be seen whether this scale of bottom-fishing can offset the outflow of retail funds:

• Positive scenario: If the Whale continues to accumulate and the 112,000 USD support holds firm, a rapid rebound similar to early August may occur.
• Risk Scenario: If institutions follow the traditional asset management companies like BlackRock to sell off, it may trigger an algorithmic liquidation wave that accelerates the fall. Traders need to closely monitor large on-chain transfers and changes in net inflow data to exchanges.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is experiencing a healthy pullback after reaching historical highs, with a stark contrast between retail investors withdrawing and institutional investors buying the dip. $112,000 is not only a technically significant support level but also a psychological barrier for the market; the outcome of the battle at this position will determine the short-term trend direction. Investors should pay attention to whether the SOPR ratio can approach the bottom signal area of 0.9, as well as the changes in holdings of Whale addresses; these on-chain indicators often signal trend reversals earlier than price movements.