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In the investment world, 2023 has been a challenging year. Many investors bet early on a Fed interest rate cut, yet it has not materialized. At 10 PM tonight, the global financial market's attention will focus on Jackson Hole, USA. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the global Central Bank annual meeting, themed "U.S. Economic Outlook and Review of the Monetary Policy Framework." This speech is not only Powell's last major address during his tenure but also a summary and reflection on the Fed's policies over the past eight years.
Looking back at Powell's tenure, his most controversial decision was the adoption of a flexible average inflation targeting regime during the pandemic in 2020. This policy allowed U.S. inflation to temporarily exceed 2%, but subsequently, the inflation rate soared above 10%, far exceeding expectations. In response to the runaway inflation, the Fed had to initiate a sharp interest rate hike cycle, which triggered severe turbulence in global financial markets.
At the global Central Bank annual meeting last August, Powell's remarks hinting at the possibility of interest rate cuts triggered a huge market reaction. The actual rate cut action in September further fueled a strong rebound in global stock markets. However, the situation this year is quite different. Although the market generally expects rate cuts, the Fed's attitude remains cautious.
In this speech, investors expect Powell to provide clear signals regarding the current economic situation, inflation trends, and the future direction of monetary policy. This not only relates to the development direction of the US economy but will also have a profound impact on global financial markets.
In the face of a complex and changing economic environment, investors need to maintain rationality and patience. Over-reliance on a single event or policy can bring risks, therefore, building a diversified investment portfolio and focusing on long-term trends is a wise move to cope with market uncertainties.