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Recently, the international rating agency Fitch reaffirmed the United States' sovereign credit rating at "AA+" and maintained a stable outlook. This rating reflects the complexity and multifaceted nature of the U.S. economy.
The advantages of the United States are evident: as the world's largest economy, it has a vast economic scale, high per capita income levels, and a vibrant business environment. In addition, the US dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, provides the United States with a unique financing advantage. These factors together support the high credit rating of the United States.
However, the United States also faces severe fiscal challenges. The persistent high fiscal deficit, heavy interest burden, and the continuously rising government debt have become major factors constraining the U.S. credit rating. Even more concerning is that the U.S. government seems to have yet to take effective measures to address these long-standing structural issues, including the fiscal deficit, debt burden, and the expenditure pressure brought about by an aging population.
According to Fitch's forecast, the U.S. government deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to show a fluctuating trend. It is predicted that by 2025, this ratio will decline from 7.7% in 2024 to 6.9%, but will rise again to 7.8% and 7.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This fluctuation indicates that the U.S. still faces challenges in fiscal management and needs to adopt stronger measures to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability.
Overall, the credit rating of the United States reflects a balance between its advantages as a global economic powerhouse and the fiscal challenges it faces. While it currently maintains a high credit rating, the U.S. government needs to seriously address the increasingly severe fiscal issues to ensure long-term economic stability and credit levels.