#美联储货币政策# Following the trend of the Fed's interest rate cut probability in September is quite interesting. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut on the 25th is 87.3%, slightly decreasing to 84.6% on the 26th. This minor fluctuation may hide the market's sensitive reaction to economic data and policy expectations. Notably, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in October reaches 42.9%, indicating that the market still has strong expectations for continued accommodative policies. Next, I will closely track various economic indicators and officials' statements, analyze their impact on interest rate decisions, and follow the potential effects of these expectation changes on crypto assets market sentiment and capital flows.