The Fed admits defeat on the 3rd day, the account rises by 20 million! The wealth secret for 2025 is all here.

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1. Fed: Strong words, honest actions
Fed's third-in-command, Williams, recently spoke as if walking on a tightrope. Last year, he insisted on continuing to raise interest rates, but now he has changed his tune, saying that the September meeting is data-dependent — which translates to looking at the data before making any decisions. There are ulterior motives behind this shift:
Inflation hits back: Core prices in the U.S. are still at a high of 3%, far from the 2% target. The minutes from the July meeting show that most officials believe the inflation risk is scarier than the employment risk. Data warning line: If August employment exceeds expectations or inflation rebounds, the Fed may immediately turn hawkish. The 8% crash in gold this April was triggered by similar expectations.
Personal opinion: The Fed now resembles a student cramming before an exam—claiming to have studied well while actually staying up late to finish assignments. Powell just hinted at dovishness on August 24, but let's not forget that the ECB also played this trick in 2024, resulting in the euro rising first and then collapsing.

2. The Asian Predicament: Japan and South Korea are caught in the middle.
The scene of the Bank of Japan's split personality:
On one hand, they are calling for interest rate hikes to combat inflation, while on the other hand, they are allowing government bonds to go unsold. Why such a contradiction?
→ Real Dilemma: Interest rate hikes will crush government debt (a 1% rate increase means Japan's government bond interest payments will rise by 3.7 trillion yen), but prices are rising while people's actual wages are shrinking (May's real wages dropped by 2.9%). Tariff retaliation: After Japan canceled talks with the U.S., it announced plans for countermeasures while secretly reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds—this combination is actually a fear that the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential will widen, leading to an even worse collapse of the yen (which has already fallen to the 150 mark).
South Korea's exchange rate defense battle:
The central bank stubbornly maintains the interest rate at 2.5%, but the Korean won has depreciated over 5% against the US dollar this year. In April, South Korea used $3 billion of its foreign exchange reserves to rescue the market, with a single-month drop of $6 billion in foreign exchange reserves—what was the effect? After a brief rebound, it continued to fall. Personal case: After South Korea intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2024, the won regained the 1400 mark, but the same tactics failed this year, indicating that under the dominance of the dollar, small countries become more passive as they struggle.

3. Emerging Markets: Some are flipping tables, while others are holding on.
Brazil takes the lead in confronting the US dollar:
The finance minister directly stated that the weaponization of the dollar accelerates its decline. This is not just empty talk—data proves it: global central banks are set to buy over 1,000 tons of gold in 2024, and another 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025, with the dollar's reserve share falling to 58%.
Russia's facade project:
The Russian finance minister bragged that the economy will rise by 1.5% in 2025, but the market consensus is only 0.8%-1.2%. This "expectation gap" is driven by political pressure forcing energy dumping, which may disrupt the global supply chain.
Personal observation of the governor: Emerging markets are being forced to take sides. India claims to be self-reliant, while Indonesia's stock market is plummeting due to political turmoil—under Trump's tariff stick, without real strength, it's simply unsustainable.

4. Investment Insights: Three Danger Signals
Policies say one thing and do another:
The Bank of Japan calls for interest rate hikes but secretly supports the bond market, similar to the European Central Bank's "hawkish rhetoric + covert bond purchases" strategy in 2024, and the outcome is monetary collapse.
Official data is greatly inflated:
Russia boasts GDP growth, but the market directly counters this—such deviations often indicate worse fundamentals (for example, actual energy exports have shrunk since the Russia-Ukraine conflict).
Market rescue tools address symptoms, not the root causes:
South Korea's massive spending to stabilize the exchange rate is only causing further declines, proving that under the dollar hegemony, small countries have only Band-Aids in their toolbox, not surgical knives.

5. Practical Strategy: Focus on Key Actions, Don't Listen to Flattering Words.
What is the Fed focusing on during the "live meeting"? Can core PCE drop below 2.5%? Will August's non-farm payrolls be below 150,000? These are the real signals. The Bank of Japan shouldn't listen to interest rate hikes: see if the Ministry of Finance really reduces the issuance of ultra-long bonds (this is much more practical than just talking). If capital flows out of South Korea: it may be forced into a "rate hike + foreign exchange control" double whammy (refer to South Korea's dollar-buying intervention in Q4 2023). Why can gold surge to $4000? Global central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter to provide support; the more chaotic the policies, the crazier the demand for safe-haven assets.
Finally, let's get real:
Policymakers are also human, and what they say often doesn't match what they do. When no one buys Japanese government bonds and the Fed says they'll assess the situation, and when Korea's efforts to save the exchange rate lead to more pain but deeper troubles—these twisted moments are actually signs of a market reversal. Just like in 2024, when gold made a comeback due to central banks' massive purchases, now that chaos has returned, opportunities may be knocking at the door.