Current market situation of ETH and bullish or bearish direction

The table lists the long and short probabilities, key support and resistance levels. It is pointed out that 4270 is an important support level, and if it can be confirmed to hold, then consider going long afterwards. If it breaks below, it may drop to 3950 (a deeper liquidity area). It is also mentioned that if the price breaks below, the next support is at 4060, and a rebound is expected around that level, with 4000 considered a short-term bottom.
Emphasizing whether 4492 can be reclaimed is crucial, as it is the key to whether the subsequent rise can continue. The resistance level above is in the range of 4530-4630.
The analysis reveals that the market's short-term sentiment is bearish, with ETH showing a weak trend and no clear bottom structure yet. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, especially before the release of the U.S. Core PCE data in the evening.
Observation points for "stabilization": It's not enough to just look at the price to determine if it "pulls back and stabilizes". You also need to pay attention to:
Volume changes: When the price rebounds, does the trading volume significantly increase to confirm momentum.
Technical indicator signals: For example, whether the RSI has rebounded from the oversold area and formed a bottom divergence, or whether the MACD has shown a golden cross signal.
K-line pattern: Is there a long lower shadow (such as a doji or hammer) or bullish engulfing pattern near key support levels (like 4270, 4060) indicating a stop in the decline?
You are currently considering shorting, which may be based on the judgment that ETH has pulled back from recent highs, the market's short-term sentiment is bearish, and the evening PCE data expectations are leaning towards bearish. These are indeed existing risk points.
However, there are a few points that need special attention:
1. Approaching an important support level: The price of 4361 is not far from the key support level of 4270. The market may find buying support at this position and initiate a rebound. Before a valid breakdown of this support occurs, the downside potential may be limited.
2. Evening PCE Data Risk: The US Core PCE data will be released tonight Beijing time. This is a significant macroeconomic event, and the difference between the actual value and the expected value is likely to cause significant market volatility. If the data is favorable, it may boost risk assets and drive ETH's rebound; if the data is unfavorable, it could further suppress prices. The uncertainty is extremely high when trading before the data release.
3. Spot Accumulation Strategy: It is mentioned that if the price can reach near the short-term bottom of 4000, spot purchases can be considered for gradual accumulation. This suggests that there may be some buying interest below.
Operational thinking
In the current market, patience and discipline are more important than frequent trading, especially on the eve of major economic data releases.
If you tend to go long:
The ideal approach is to wait for the price to pull back near key support levels (such as 4270 or 4060), and then consider entering the market in batches after a clear stabilization signal (such as candlestick patterns, volume confirmation, or indicator divergence).
Be sure to strictly control stop-loss (for example, set the stop-loss for long positions 50-100 points below key support levels).
If you still prefer to short:
It is not advisable to blindly short at the current price level. A more prudent approach is to patiently wait for the price to rebound to higher resistance levels (such as 4400, 4492, or the 4530-4630 range), and only consider trying a light position when signs of stagnation appear (such as long upper shadows or decreased trading volume).
A possible strategy recently is to short-sell if the price rebounds to the 4530-4600 USD range and shows signs of stagnation, targeting 4460/4350, with a stop-loss set above 4630.
Be sure to strictly implement stop-loss. #Gate重磅上线GUSD #ETH走势分析 #Solana财库公司崛起 #ETH