Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 index are showing an increasingly clear divergence at the time of writing. While in the past, these two asset classes often moved in tandem, the latest daily chart reflects a contrarian trend.
On the chart, Bitcoin ( purple) continues to surge strongly, while the S&P 500 is plummeting. This trend reveals signs that capital is gradually shifting to the cryptocurrency market.
The recovery of Bitcoin has become increasingly noticeable as it follows a prolonged period of weakness over the past few weeks. From its historic peak of 124,000 USD, this coin has retraced to 108,000 USD, before attempting to regain balance and breaking through the important resistance level of 110,000 USD.
Source: TradingView## Familiar separation model
This is not the first time Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have moved in opposite directions. Over the years, Bitcoin has often shown superior resilience compared to traditional stock markets.
Data from Curvo shows that during the period from 2020 to 2024, the S&P 500 outperformed Bitcoin only three times, the most notable being the separation period in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted by 62%, while the S&P 500 only lost 13%.
Source: CoinMarketCapCurrently, the liquidity flow is leaning towards Bitcoin. Specifically, in 2024, this cryptocurrency has increased by 135%, compared to the 33% of the S&P 500 index.
Analysts believe that if capital continues to flow strongly in, Bitcoin could completely break through the important resistance zone. At the same time, this movement also promises to create positive momentum for many other altcoins.
BTC.D decreases – Who is the beneficiary?
Altcoins seem to be benefiting from the weakening dominance of Bitcoin.
According to CoinMarketCap, the dominance rate of Bitcoin (BTC.D) – measuring Bitcoin's market share compared to the entire cryptocurrency market – has decreased by 3.43% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) accounts for most of that liquidity, with an increase of 2.17%.
In the scenario where BTC.D continues to decline, altcoins may extend their upward momentum in the upcoming sessions.
However, analyst Ben Cowen presents a contrarian view. He believes that the dominance rate of Bitcoin will soon recover, which will benefit BTC but put pressure on most altcoin pairs.
"I am optimistic about the ALT/ETH pairs in September, but pessimistic about the ALT/BTC pairs, as BTC.D is showing signs of recovery."
Cowen explains that traders often mistake the rise in altcoin prices compared to ETH as a sign that BTC is weakening. In reality, this index can still rise, as altcoins may temporarily outperform ETH but are still weaker compared to BTC.
He added that ETH has the potential to retest the 21-week EMA, giving the altcoin a short-term advantage. However, this momentum will be hard to sustain when ETH/USD hits that mark.
The prominent names still keep the fire
At the time of writing, the 90-day altcoin season index indicates that the market is still showing some bright spots, even though most large-cap tokens have only edged up slightly. Notably, memecoins and mid-cap projects are becoming the main drivers leading the recovery.
Prominent in this group are Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), Ethena (ENA), Conflux (CFX), Story (IP) and Chainlink (LINK) – names that continue to maintain their upward momentum thanks to solid fundamentals.
However, in the context of continuously shifting capital flows, large-cap altcoins can still become attractive destinations as investors seek safer options.
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Bitcoin decouples from the S&P 500: Historic signal ignites altcoin season expectations
Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 index are showing an increasingly clear divergence at the time of writing. While in the past, these two asset classes often moved in tandem, the latest daily chart reflects a contrarian trend.
On the chart, Bitcoin ( purple) continues to surge strongly, while the S&P 500 is plummeting. This trend reveals signs that capital is gradually shifting to the cryptocurrency market.
The recovery of Bitcoin has become increasingly noticeable as it follows a prolonged period of weakness over the past few weeks. From its historic peak of 124,000 USD, this coin has retraced to 108,000 USD, before attempting to regain balance and breaking through the important resistance level of 110,000 USD.
This is not the first time Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have moved in opposite directions. Over the years, Bitcoin has often shown superior resilience compared to traditional stock markets.
Data from Curvo shows that during the period from 2020 to 2024, the S&P 500 outperformed Bitcoin only three times, the most notable being the separation period in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted by 62%, while the S&P 500 only lost 13%.
Analysts believe that if capital continues to flow strongly in, Bitcoin could completely break through the important resistance zone. At the same time, this movement also promises to create positive momentum for many other altcoins.
BTC.D decreases – Who is the beneficiary?
Altcoins seem to be benefiting from the weakening dominance of Bitcoin.
According to CoinMarketCap, the dominance rate of Bitcoin (BTC.D) – measuring Bitcoin's market share compared to the entire cryptocurrency market – has decreased by 3.43% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) accounts for most of that liquidity, with an increase of 2.17%.
In the scenario where BTC.D continues to decline, altcoins may extend their upward momentum in the upcoming sessions.
However, analyst Ben Cowen presents a contrarian view. He believes that the dominance rate of Bitcoin will soon recover, which will benefit BTC but put pressure on most altcoin pairs.
"I am optimistic about the ALT/ETH pairs in September, but pessimistic about the ALT/BTC pairs, as BTC.D is showing signs of recovery."
Cowen explains that traders often mistake the rise in altcoin prices compared to ETH as a sign that BTC is weakening. In reality, this index can still rise, as altcoins may temporarily outperform ETH but are still weaker compared to BTC.
He added that ETH has the potential to retest the 21-week EMA, giving the altcoin a short-term advantage. However, this momentum will be hard to sustain when ETH/USD hits that mark.
The prominent names still keep the fire
At the time of writing, the 90-day altcoin season index indicates that the market is still showing some bright spots, even though most large-cap tokens have only edged up slightly. Notably, memecoins and mid-cap projects are becoming the main drivers leading the recovery.
Prominent in this group are Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), Ethena (ENA), Conflux (CFX), Story (IP) and Chainlink (LINK) – names that continue to maintain their upward momentum thanks to solid fundamentals.
However, in the context of continuously shifting capital flows, large-cap altcoins can still become attractive destinations as investors seek safer options.
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