After the unexpected performance of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), expectations for interest rate cuts have heated up: the probability of a 25 basis point cut has reached 98%, with even a 14% chance of a one-time cut of 50 basis points. This expectation hangs like the sword of Damocles, carrying hopes for liquidity easing while hiding risks, with each step potentially triggering market fluctuations. The hidden problems behind the interest rate cut warrant caution. The fully priced-in good news effect is the first to feel the impact; the market is forward-looking, and in the months leading up to the cut, investors have already positioned themselves, incorporating potential rise space into their decisions, reflected in the current market conditions. It's like too many spoilers before a movie release, leading to a lack of anticipation when it finally debuts; the market may pull back when good news is realized. At the same time, large-scale profit-taking by institutions puts pressure on assets like BTC, with large investors cashing out at high levels, similar to a giant ship suddenly unloading a large amount of cargo, causing the vessel to sway and triggering market volatility. The curtain on interest rate cuts has yet to rise, but market games have already become intense. The pre-digested good news and institutional exits suggest the market is unlikely to calm after the rate cut. Investors need to think about how to accurately position themselves amid uncertainties, avoiding risks and seizing opportunities.

After Bitcoin's price surged to around 116,600, it faced pressure and pulled back, declining to a low of 115,071 before stabilizing. Currently, it is slightly consolidating within the range of 115,500-116,000, still operating steadily within an upward oscillation channel, and the overall trend framework has not changed. Despite multiple attempts to challenge the previous highs during this period, effective breakthroughs could not be formed due to a lack of sustained momentum, and the upward rhythm is temporarily constrained. However, the defense strength of the key support area below is extremely strong, successfully curbing a deep pullback in the market. It is particularly noteworthy that when the price tests the lower support, it has continuously recorded candlestick patterns with long lower shadows. This technical signal intuitively reflects that whenever the market falls to the key support level, buying interest actively enters the market, significantly demonstrating the bulls' control over the lower area, laying a solid foundation for the continuation of the upward oscillation trend.