BTC Cycle Peak Approaching: The Next 7 Weeks Could Transform Your Portfolio

Bull market finale in sight.

Cycle data shows BTC is 95% through its pattern (1,017 days since November 2022 low) as we experience the typical Q3 correction.

Here's my contrarian strategy to capitalize on what's coming.

Cycle Timeline Analysis

Historical data shows previous bull markets peaked between 1,060-1,100 days. That puts our target window in late October to mid-November 2025 - roughly 50 days ahead.

More evidence supports this timing:

We're now 503 days post-April 2024 halving. Historical peaks arrive 518-580 days after halvings, placing us 77-86% through the expected window. The danger zone is approaching fast.

What Happens After the Peak?

Every major BTC cycle has ended with 70-80% corrections lasting 370-410 days. This suggests serious downside risk through Q1-Q2 2026.

The probability of a 2026 bear market based on historical patterns? Nearly certain.

But before that - expect fireworks.

Seasonal Context & Technical Picture

September historically performs poorly (-6.17% average), but Q3 shows mixed results. The typical pattern: September weakness followed by October/November strength.

Watch September 17th closely.

Current technical readings:

• $BTC at $109.8K pullback
• ATH $124.1K (August 14)
• Support levels: 50-week SMA $95.9K, 200-week SMA $52.3K
• SPX correlation decoupling (-0.25 over 7 weeks) - often signals major reversals

Daily Chart & Direction

Technical indicators:

• 200d BPRO $111.0K
• 200d SMA $101.5K
• RSI 43
• ATR 3,000
• 50d volatility 2,940

Near-term support: $107.7K-$108.7K Near-term resistance: $113.0K-$114.1K

Both shorter and longer timeframe indicators show bearish signals. Breaking points to watch: $112,758 / $114,292. Market remains neutral/bearish below these levels; structure intact above $107-108K.

If support breaks, expect bears to press their advantage. Secondary corrections typically reach 20-30% depth.

On-chain & Institutional Activity

Mining costs around $95.4K (cost/price ≈0.86), with miners showing resilience and minimal capitulation risk. NUPL at 0.527, MVRV 2.20, with over 90% of supply in profit.

Institutional players still engaged:

• ETF 24h spot volume: $630.94M
• Net flow: +$332.8M on September 3 (first significant inflow after August outflows)
• Total AUM: $155.8B
  • BlackRock: $81.44B
  • Fidelity: $35.28B
  • GBTC: $19.8B
• Spot products represent 93.54% market share

The Bottom Line

We're approximately 96% through this cycle with about 50 days until the historic peak window.

Key support levels are holding, on-chain metrics remain resilient, and ETFs are showing renewed interest despite being down $13B from peak AUM.

September strategy: survive the volatility. October-November: prepare for potential peak and subsequent altcoin season.

Mark your calendar: October 22

Personally, I think this cycle could extend longer than historical patterns suggest. The institutional involvement creates a different dynamic than previous cycles. I'm actually positioning for strength into Q1 2026, contrary to the historical data. High-risk play? Absolutely, but the potential upside if I'm right is massive.

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No financial advice. May contain third-party opinions and analysis.