Recently, the possibility of a government shutdown in the United States has sparked widespread attention in the market. If a government shutdown causes economic data to be released late, the Fed may continue its current interest rate cut path. However, if the Fed clearly states in October that it will not cut interest rates, the market may exhibit divergent reactions in the short term.

In the stock market, maintaining a high interest rate environment may put pressure on interest-sensitive sectors, especially technology and growth stocks. This is because high interest rates increase the financing costs for businesses, while also weakening stock valuations, which may lead to short-term pressure on these sectors.

The bond market may become more sensitive to expectations of future interest rate cuts. In this case, the yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds may become steeper, and the gap between short-term and long-term yields may widen.

As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold may benefit in situations of increasing policy uncertainty. Investors may shift their funds towards gold, driving up the price of gold over a certain period.

If the government shutdown lasts for a month, and the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in October, investors can consider the following strategies:

First, adjust the asset allocation ratio. You can moderately increase the allocation of safe-haven assets like gold, for example, by allocating 5% to 10% of the portfolio to these assets. At the same time, reduce holdings in growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates and instead follow inflation-benefiting sectors or defensive assets, such as utility stocks.

Secondly, follow private data sources. In the absence of government data releases, investors can closely monitor third-party data such as the ADP Private Employment Report and the National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales Report. These data can to some extent substitute for official data, helping investors assess the economic situation.

Finally, it is very important to maintain sufficient liquidity. Holding an adequate amount of cash or stablecoins can not only cope with the risks brought by market volatility but also allow investors to quickly make low-position purchases when oversold opportunities arise.

In this complex market environment, investors need to remain vigilant, closely follow policy changes and market trends, and flexibly adjust their investment strategies to cope with potential risks and seize possible investment opportunities.