The four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin has always been one of the core indicators of the cryptocurrency market. This theory is based on Bitcoin's halving mechanism: approximately every four years, the block reward is halved, directly affecting the supply side. If demand remains stable or grows, this supply contraction often triggers a new round of market trends.

Looking at the three cycles of 2012, 2016, and 2020, we can identify a relatively stable pattern: within one to two years after the halving, the market typically enters a bullish phase, then peaks and corrects, experiences a bear market, and finally gradually builds a bottom in preparation for the next halving. Although the specific timing of each cycle may vary slightly, the overall framework remains consistent, which is why many analysts consider it an important observation indicator.

The current market is still operating within this cyclical framework. The macro environment has not undergone fundamental changes, and the price of Bitcoin remains above the bullish support zone. Historical data shows that in September of 2017 and 2021, the market stabilized at similar positions before continuing to rise and reach new highs. Currently, this support area is around $27,300, which has been tested multiple times, and its importance is self-evident. The key resistance level above is the trend line that has continued since 2017, located around $38,000.

For the upcoming market, October will be a critical time window. If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through this resistance level, the market trend may undergo significant changes.

The overall trend of Ethereum (ETH) is in sync with BitCoin, but from a technical perspective, it appears to be stronger. Since 2021, Ethereum's performance has been particularly remarkable.

Although the cycle theory of Bitcoin provides us with valuable insights, investors still need to be cautious. The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market means that, in addition to cyclical factors, there are many other variables that may affect market direction. Regulatory policies, technological advancements, institutional participation, and other factors may have a significant impact on the market in the short term.

Therefore, when making investment decisions, it is recommended that investors not only focus on cycle theory but also comprehensively consider various influencing factors in the market, while always maintaining risk awareness. For long-term investors, understanding and utilizing these cyclical fluctuations may present potential opportunities, but it also requires sufficient patience and risk tolerance.