As investors' optimism for "Uptober" gradually heats up, a significant market factor comes to the forefront: up to $3.9 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked in October, undoubtedly making it one of the biggest variables in the market this month.

Among the many unlocking projects, three are particularly worthy of close attention from investors:

1. The Aster project will unlock tokens worth $503 million on October 4.
2. The Sui project plans to unlock $180 million worth of tokens on October 5, accounting for 3.12% of its total market capitalization, which may trigger short-term market fluctuations.
3. The XPL project will unlock approximately 90.06 million dollars worth of Tokens on October 15.

The reason why token unlocks raise market concerns is mainly because the holders of unlocked tokens often include early investors with very low costs, project team members who hold tokens at zero cost, and foundations that possess a large number of tokens. These groups may have strong profit-taking motives after the unlock, equivalent to releasing significant potential selling pressure to the market. Historical data shows that token prices usually exhibit a downward trend in the two weeks before and after the unlock date, initially influenced by market expectations, and later fluctuating due to actual selling pressure.

However, not all token unlocks necessarily lead to a price crash. The actual impact of unlocks on the market needs to consider the following key factors:

1. The fundamentals of the project and market narrative: If a project has a solid technical foundation, an active ecosystem, and a clear development plan, strong market demand may offset some of the selling pressure.

2. The selling willingness of the unlocking party: Generally speaking, the selling pressure brought about by the unlocking of project teams and institutional investors is usually more apparent than that of the tokens allocated to the community. However, the unlocking strategies of certain private placement investors may be more flexible and may not necessarily lead to immediate selling.

3. Overall Market Environment: If the market is in a bull market phase or there are favorable news, the negative impact of unlocking may be offset by positive factors in the market.

For investors, while closely monitoring these unlocking events, it is also important to comprehensively assess the long-term development prospects of the project and the overall market trends to make rational investment decisions. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, the long-term value of quality projects is the key to investment.