On October 1, 2025, the U.S. government faced a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin prices fluctuated around $114,000, attracting widespread attention in the market.

Experts believe that a government shutdown may exacerbate short-term Bitcoin fluctuations but could also become a factor driving its price increase. Historical data shows that the impact of government shutdowns on Bitcoin is closely related to the market environment at the time. For example, during the 2013 shutdown, Bitcoin rose by 14%, while it fell by 6% during the 2018-2019 shutdown. This difference mainly stems from varying market cycles.

The government shutdown primarily affects the Bitcoin market through three aspects: first, the delayed release of key economic data such as non-farm payroll reports may increase market uncertainty; second, the government shutdown may weaken the dollar's credit, driving funds towards assets like Bitcoin; finally, regulatory bodies like the SEC may suspend enforcement activities during the shutdown, potentially providing a short-term respite for the cryptocurrency market.

The duration of the suspension is also an important factor affecting Bitcoin's performance. A short-term suspension may lead to a drop followed by a rise in Bitcoin's price, while a long-term suspension may highlight its safe-haven properties. In addition, the large number of Bitcoin options contracts expiring this Friday may also trigger market fluctuations.

In the long run, the trend of the U.S. government continuously increasing debt and excessive issuance of dollars is difficult to reverse, which constitutes the fundamental logic for the long-term rise of Bitcoin. The political deadlock may only act as a catalyst to accelerate this trend.

In the current situation, investors should closely follow the negotiation progress in Washington, remain calm and rational amidst market fluctuations, and prudently seize potential investment opportunities. At the same time, they should also recognize the high-risk characteristics of the cryptocurrency market and manage risks effectively.