Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC is pulling back under the 50-day EMA resistance, and the short-term trend remains cautious.

On October 7, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell back below the key support zone after experiencing several days of fluctuations, constrained by the technical resistance of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This trend has attracted market attention, as investors are reassessing the short-term trend of BTC and potential support levels. Although the overall medium to long-term structure still maintains an upward trend, signals of a short-term pullback are gradually strengthening.

1. Overview of Current BTC Market

As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $62,800, down about 3.5% from last week's high. Since rebounding above $65,000 at the end of September, BTC has not been able to effectively break through the resistance of the 50-day EMA (approximately $64,200).

From a technical perspective, BTC has attempted to break upward multiple times without success, indicating strong selling pressure above. Meanwhile, the trading volume has shrunk at high levels, suggesting that market sentiment is shifting from positive to cautious.

2. Technical Analysis: EMA and Key Support Level

50-day EMA resistance strengthening

The 50-day EMA is an important indicator for short-term trend judgment. In the past few weeks, BTC has faced selling pressure multiple times after touching this moving average, indicating that the market has not yet accumulated enough momentum to break through this technical barrier. If the price continues to be suppressed below this line, the pressure for a short-term pullback will persist.

key support level and downward risk

From a support perspective, BTC's recent key support level is located in the $61,500 range, which corresponds to the lower edge of the previous consolidation range and the overlap point of the 100-day EMA. Once this range is lost, the price may further drop to $59,800 or the psychological level of $58,000.

However, from a medium-term structure perspective, as long as BTC remains above the 200-day EMA (around $56,000), the overall bullish structure has not been destroyed.

3. Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors

The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy

Recent US economic data has shown strong performance, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a high interest rate environment until the end of 2025. High interest rates put pressure on risk assets, leading to a decrease in short-term capital inflow into the crypto market.

ETF capital flow is slowing down

Since August, the net inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly slowed down. Although institutions are still positioning for the long term, the short-term market lacks new buying support, making the price susceptible to technical pressure and experiencing pullbacks.

Investors' sentiment tends to be cautious.

According to the latest data from Gate Research, the market fear and greed index has fallen to 47 this week, indicating that investor sentiment is leaning towards a neutral and cautious stance. The decrease in trading volume and the decline in open interest also confirm that the market has temporarily entered a "consolidation period."

4. Potential Benefits and Medium to Long-term Outlook

Despite the short-term technical pressure, the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain strong in the medium to long term:

1. The halving effect is still fermenting: since the halving in 2024, miner supply has decreased, and the long-term supply-demand structure continues to optimize.
2. Institutions continue to enter the market: multiple asset management companies, including BlackRock and Fidelity, continue to increase their BTC holdings through ETFs.
3. On-chain activity rebounds: According to Glassnode data, the number of active addresses has increased by over 8% in the past month, indicating that real usage demand is recovering.

Therefore, if BTC can build a solid support in the range of $60,000 to $61,000, there will still be an opportunity to challenge the mid-term resistance zone of $65,000 to $68,000 again.

5. Trading Strategy Recommendations

For different types of investors, the following strategies can be referred to in the current market environment:

• Short-term traders: It is recommended to follow the fluctuations between the $61,500 support level and the $64,200 resistance level. If BTC effectively breaks through the 50-day EMA, consider following the trend to go long; if it falls below $61,000, it is advisable to set a stop-loss for protection.
• Long-term investors: Maintain a regular investment strategy and build positions in batches. As long as BTC remains above the 200-day EMA, the overall bullish trend still has continuity.
• Conservative holders: Consider using Gate wealth management or ETH staking and other yield products to obtain stable returns during the observation period.

6. Conclusion: Is the BTC pullback a risk or an opportunity?

From the current market structure, the pullback of BTC after being rejected at the 50-day EMA looks more like a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal. Market funds are still seeking a new balance point, and the short-term fluctuations are accumulating momentum for long-term upward movement.