📝【Review and Interpretation of Future Opportunities】

📊1: Why did the breakthrough drop?
Trump tweeted early in the morning, imposing a 100% tariff on us starting from November 1, triggering a black swan event, causing the US stock market to crash across the board, affecting the cryptocurrency market as well.
📊 II: Why do financial markets decline when tariffs are imposed?
1: The current U.S. government shutdown has caused recent macroeconomic data to be delayed, leaving the market in a vacuum. There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the end of the month, which has led to a lack of investor confidence. Even minor fluctuations can trigger panic.
2: If tariffs are increased, inflation will inevitably rise, which will affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, and the market is concerned about inflation and the economy.
3: A sudden plunge in the early morning triggered high-leverage contract liquidations, leading to a follow-up selling pressure and causing a crash.
📊Three: Will this affect the bull market?
Currently, the weekly and monthly charts of Bitcoin are above the trendline, indicating a bullish trend, and there has not yet been a large cycle bearish structure. It is premature to conclude that we are transitioning from a bull to a bear market due to short-term news-induced declines. Let's not forget that many institutions have not yet exited the market, and Trump's crypto dream has just begun. Even if the current bull market has reached what we call the final stage, a transition from bull to bear would still require a structural distribution.
📊 Four: What is the trend after historical black swan events?
The Mentougou incident fell by 80%, the 94 incident fell by 50%, the 312 incident fell by 45%, and the 519 incident fell by 35%. Looking back, after each black swan event that triggered a sharp decline, the market underwent a short-term consolidation, and each time it broke through resistance and surpassed previous highs. Moreover, with the changes in the cryptocurrency market's chip structure, the impact of each black swan event on volatility is becoming increasingly smaller.
📊Five: Will it definitely take effect on November 1?
Not necessarily, because this time Trump only announced through dynamic tweets and did not go through legal procedures, nor did he sign presidential executive orders or customs notices. Looking back at history, Trump's method of intimidation is also a common tactic. Let's not forget that there is the APEC meeting at the end of the month, where he and the Big Guy can communicate and negotiate face to face. The worst result is already visible; if the negotiations are slow, it will undoubtedly be a major positive.
📊Six: Is the news continuing to ferment, what is the outlook for the market?
The short-term news impact outweighs the technical aspects, and the indicator data is distorted. After a few days of consolidation, it will gradually recover. Don't worry; the impact is due to short-term emotional responses to the news, including the sell-off events triggered by every black swan event. As time passes, the influence of the news will fade, and the market will return to a normal technical structure. In the short term, whether low-leverage or high-leverage contracts in the market have been completely liquidated; this is the largest liquidation in history, which is good for the final peak in the market. At this time, adjust your mindset and prepare your strategy for the upcoming challenges. For specific operational points and small-scale movements, refer to the points from noon.
💗 Summary: Experiencing such a baptism on the investment journey is a good thing, it's growth. Without going through significant storms, you'll never know if the boat you're in can withstand the raging winds and torrential rains. The result is clear: 2 million people have been liquidated, and the altcoins have seen a maximum drop of 90%. Although we have had some short-term profit withdrawal, we ultimately outperformed most people. It's still the same saying: the market is not about who makes the most in the short term, but about who can survive until the end. Wishing you good luck.