After two days of turmoil over the weekend, BTC has returned above the 50-day moving average, and the market recovery is faster than I expected. As for whether it can hold above, whether it has truly recovered, or if it's just a bull trap planning to come back for another round?

I think it’s better to wait patiently for now. After all the ups and downs, BTC is still the same BTC. As a long-time player, there’s no need for too many reasons to hold BTC. What we focus on is not the emotional and price fluctuations, but more on the persistence of our beliefs.

Entering mid-October, the crash of 1011 has sparked widespread discussions about the "bull market is dead." Let me directly answer some questions. Although we are at the end of a four-year cycle, I personally believe the bull market has not ended. There is still a high probability for BTC and ETH to challenge their ATH. I am not one of those fervent bulls. The views I analyze only represent my personal stance and are not investment advice. How to make decisions is something you need to judge for yourself; I am only responsible for my own account funds.

Continuing to discuss the market, most mainstream altcoins have a good rebound momentum. I looked at the on-chain data, and the liquidation amount across major exchanges in the past 24 hours has reached 600 million USD, with nearly 400 million USD from short positions. Although compared to the day before yesterday's 1011 it seems minor, the implications of the two are different. (Figure 2)

1011 is JSY, which is caused by the liquidation of risk control systems such as market makers and large stakers, mainly due to human factors. No matter how many KOLs explain it afterwards, you basically won't see any clarification from JSY after this plunge. There are many dark sides in our circle that require deep thinking and verification on your part to understand. It's impossible to explain everything here clearly and let you know all the inside stories, but it's essential for you to deeply understand why a very small number of seasoned traders advise you to respect the market and stay away from contracts.

Because newcomers without any trading foundation and non-professional players, as long as they don't use stop-loss when trading contracts, 95% are the fuel of this market.

The liquidation data from yesterday surprised me. I didn't expect there to be so much retail capital still willing to use high leverage to chase long positions at such a time. Looking at the comments in the discussion area, I can only say that the funds and players that can use leveraged trading in the current market have not been completely cleared out; everyone still has the mentality of taking one last gamble.

As of 2 PM on the 13th, the trading momentum of many cryptocurrencies has returned to normal. Chart 3 is from the morning of the 11th, and Chart 4 is around 2 PM on the 13th, which means that the upcoming time frame has returned to the range of long and short battles. This RSI heat map is quite useful; during each major drop and surge in the market, I always use this RSI indicator to observe the positions of popular cryptocurrencies in the market. This is because the methods of market makers have certain commonalities. If a valuable cryptocurrency suddenly deviates or becomes overheated, it represents a high-certainty opportunity for short-term intervention.

In summary, I personally anticipate that there is still significant uncertainty leading up to the interest rate meeting at the end of October. Therefore, it is highly probable that we will continue to maintain a range-bound fluctuation for some time, and there may even be a second test. We should have a clearer view after watching the market trends following the opening of the U.S. stock market tonight.

Due to the significant uncertainty, I just closed the short-term long position I entered two days ago, taking a little profit, as I leveraged it, and the gains were slightly more than that short-term trade before the National Day.

As for how to operate in the future, it's still the same saying, look for opportunities. If a market you understand appears, then act on it; if you don't understand it, then don't act. Regardless of how you proceed, you must be clear on how to stop losses and how to take profits.

As we enter the fourth quarter, the risks associated with operations will inevitably increase, and the mindset of most players will become increasingly restless. This is a period of highly human nature-based games, driven by factors of the four-year historical cycle. The psychological states of pump and dump will directly affect your earnings. Whenever the FOMO psychology of retail investors arises, extreme one-sided market conditions are likely to occur.

My own trading strategy is to use small positions for short-term trading to sense the market, but I will not buy more chips with large positions, focusing mainly on selling. After BTC exceeds 130,000 and ETH exceeds 6,000, I will gradually sell my spot according to the plan. For the large position in b某安, I will also slowly clear it out during this rebound. Recently, b某安's actions and news have sparked a lot of controversy. Whether you enjoy b某安's life or believe in b某安's future, I always feel that Boss Zhao and Sister Yi are already in a vortex, so a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. I will withdraw my positions and observe the situation first; perhaps some will flow into Xu Boss and GT.

Recently, I don't know if it's because I've talked about sensitive topics multiple times, but the views on my public posts have been very low. Although the likes and comments on each post are quite high, since mid-September, the reading volume has significantly decreased. Previously, it was generally around 30K-35K, but now even if it's rated as a featured post, it won't exceed ten thousand.

I really want to figure out where the problem lies. Is it that among the more than 20,000 people following me, 3/4 have already left the market? Or is it being controlled? This data is quite crucial, so I want to do a test. If you are a friend who has been following the dynamics for a long time and you feel that this dynamic is indeed valuable, please, every time you finish watching, press the little red heart and give me a thumbs up. I want to see if the data in the background will show any changes. I hope you can help with this. Thank you.

Finally, let's schedule a time. Are you free on Wednesday evening? I'm not busy this week, and I have time to do a live stream and chat with everyone. If you have any topics you'd like to discuss or questions you need to consult about, you can write them in the comments section first. If it's within my capacity, I'll explain everything in detail.

Welcome friends who have time # let's gather together, see you on Wednesday at 8:30 PM! #加密市场反弹