Can the 150-year Benner Cycle predict the next crypto peak? The data suggests maybe not.

Samuel Benner was a farmer ruined by the crisis of 1873. To emotionally recover, he became obsessed with economic patterns—especially crop price cycles. In 1875 he published his theory: the “Benner Cycle,” based on the belief that solar cycles impacted harvests, and therefore market prices.

The theory is simple. Without complex mathematical models, Benner mapped three lines:

• Line A: years of panic
• Line B: years of boom (sell)
• Line C: years of recession (buy)

The interesting thing? This chart from 150 years ago apparently predicted key historical events: the Great Depression (1929), the dot-com bubble, even the COVID-19 crash. With slight deviations of only a few years.

Why crypto traders are obsessed right now

On Twitter/X, retail investors massively shared the chart, arguing that:

• 2023 was the best time to buy (according to the cycle)
• 2026 will be the next massive peak of the market

The investor Crynet summarized it like this: “Peak in 2026. It gives us one more year. Does it sound crazy? Yes. But markets are not just numbers—they are mood, memory, and momentum. Sometimes these old charts work, not because they are magical, but because enough people believe they work.”

Google Trends data shows that searches for “Ciclo Benner” exploded in the last month, reflecting the desperation for bullish narratives amid uncertainty.

The problem: reality breaks the theory

But wait. In April 2025, strange things happened.

On April 2, Trump announced new tariffs. The markets did not react well. April 7 was so severe that some called it “Black Monday”—crypto lost $320 billion in capitalization from $2.64T to $2.32T(.

More concerning: JPMorgan raised its probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60%. Goldman Sachs set it at 45%—the highest level since the post-pandemic era.

That directly contradicts what the Benner Cycle predicts for 2025-2026.

Is the Benner Cycle bullshit or just luck?

Veteran trader Peter Brandt was brutal: “I don’t know how much I would trust this. It’s more distraction than anything. I can’t make decisions based on a fantasy chart.”

It makes a valid point. The Benner Cycle got some big predictions right—but it also had deviations. Is it a real prediction or cherry-picking coincidences?

The brutal conclusion

Yes, the Benner cycle predicts a peak in 2026. But in 2025 we are already seeing volatility that should be in recession years. This suggests that either:

1. The cycle is wrong for this era
2. Tariffs disrupted the historical pattern
3. The pattern exists, but with more variability than we think.

The inconvenient truth: history is likely to repeat itself in cycles, but not with Swiss watches. If the recession hits in 2025 instead of 2026, everyone betting on the Benner Cycle will lose money while whispering “but the chart said…”