US employment is on high alert: what to expect tomorrow and how it impacts crypto

Tomorrow, the official employment report will be released, and all signs point to bad news. The preliminary data is already raising alarms across the labor market.

What to Expect from Tomorrow’s Report

Consensus estimates are weak:

• Hourly earnings: +0.3% (no change)
• Non-farm jobs: 73K to 75K new positions
• Unemployment rate: rises from 4.2% to 4.3%

The numbers themselves aren’t extraordinary, but the context is concerning.

The Labor Market Is Crumbling

Accelerated layoffs: In August, 88,736 layoffs were announced — the toughest August since the pandemic. More worryingly, so far this year, layoffs have totaled 892,000, a 66% increase compared to all of 2024.

Massive revision coming on September 9: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will update the official data. Goldman Sachs estimates this annual revision could erase between 550,000 and 950,000 jobs from last year’s records. It would be the worst revision since 2010. Remember, last August, the government eliminated 818,000 jobs that never existed — this adjustment triggered panic and led to the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September.

Other indicators are already in free fall:

• ADP (private sector data): +54K jobs in August vs. +68K expected
• JOLTS: For the first time since 2021, more unemployed people than job openings
• Quit rate: dropped to 0.9%, the lowest since 2008
• Unemployment claims: rising more than expected
• Full-time employment: lost 623K in May, the fourth-largest decline since 2020

Why This Matters for Crypto

The market already prices in a 98% chance of rate cuts in September. But if tomorrow’s data confirms this massive deterioration, the Fed could lay the groundwork for more cuts in 2025 and possibly end quantitative tightening (QT).

Lower rates = cheaper money = increased capital flow into alternative assets like crypto. Weak employment data is actually positive for Bitcoin and the ecosystem because it raises the likelihood of a dovish shift by the Fed.