Gold Treads Water As Shutdown Drama Hits Day 37—Here's What's Moving Markets

Gold barely budged on Thursday, holding near $3,980/oz as traders juggled a mess of conflicting signals: brutal job cut data vs. private payroll beats, a 37-day government shutdown crushing 750k fed workers, and legal drama around Trump’s tariffs that’s got the Supreme Court raising eyebrows.

The Numbers That Matter:

• Gold: $3,979.90 (down 0.01%)
• Silver: $47.79 (down 0.14%)
• Job cuts in October hit 153,074—highest monthly total since 2003
• BUT private employers added 42k jobs last month (beat 28k forecast)

Why Gold’s Got Support:

The shutdown is now scorching $15 billion/week from the economy. Airlines are getting hit with 10% air traffic cuts at 40 airports, and low-income energy assistance is next on the chopping block. Fed officials are clearly nervous—CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 71.1% shot at a 25-basis-point rate cut on Dec 9-10.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court just threw shade at Trump’s tariff strategy, questioning whether using 1977 emergency legislation to justify the move actually violates Congress’s authority. That legal uncertainty? Traders dig it for gold.

Geopolitical Tailwind:

Russia’s pushing hard in eastern Ukraine (Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Donetsk), while Hamas-Israel ceasefire (via Trump’s 20-point plan) is holding steady in Gaza. Classic risk-off environment.

The Catch: Analysts say gold could take a hit once the shutdown ends—but nobody’s betting on that happening soon. Until then, expect yellow metal to float in this uncertainty zone.