11.16 BTC Evening Thoughts

Daily Level Analysis

· K-line pattern: The daily line has slightly corrected, with the price dropping 0.90% to 95339.4, fluctuating within the range of 94800.0-96600.0, and the daily line shows a high-level consolidation trend.
· Bollinger Bands: The price is still operating below the middle band (97038.4), the Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, the lower band (92801.8) provides support, and the middle band constitutes key resistance.
· MACD: DIF (-1689.3) and DEA (-1798.5) have formed a golden cross below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram (218.5) continues to turn positive, indicating that the rebound momentum is still ongoing.
· Key levels: 94800.0 has become recent support, 97038.4 (Bollinger Band midline) is an important resistance level.

4-hour level analysis

· Trend Structure: The price is oscillating and consolidating within the range of 94800-96600. After rebounding from the low point of 93955, it has entered a high-level consolidation phase and is currently testing support around 95300.
· Moving Average System: The short-term moving averages are flat, with the price oscillating between MA7 and MA30, while the MA30 moving average is creating resistance around 96500.
· MACD: The DIF and DEA form a death cross above the zero axis, and the MACD histogram turns negative, increasing short-term adjustment pressure.
· Price-Volume Relationship: Net outflow of $-89.66 million, short-term capital outflow indicates cautious market sentiment, and the main force has placed sell orders of $15.12 million, increasing upward pressure.

Comprehensive judgment

BTC rebounded from a low before 93955 and entered a high-level consolidation phase. Technical indicators show that short-term adjustment pressure is increasing, but the daily level rebound pattern has not yet been broken. The current price is seeking support near 95300, and attention needs to be paid to the defense of the key support level at 94800. Large sell orders from the main force indicate that there is significant pressure above, and short-term volatility may continue.

Operation Suggestions

· Long Position Strategy:
· Rebound and stabilize in the 95000-94800 range to go long, target 96000-96500
· After breaking 96800, pull back to go long, target 97500-98000
· Short Position Strategy:
· Short at the 96500-96800 range, target 95500-95000
· After breaking below 94800, rebound to short, target 94000-93500

Risk warning: BTC is in a critical consolidation phase, with increased selling pressure from large orders. It is recommended to operate with a light position and set strict stop losses, focusing on the effectiveness of the 94800 support level. If this position is effectively broken, it may test the previous low support at 93955 again.

Overall, BTC is facing adjustment pressure in the short term, but the daily level rebound pattern has not been broken. It is advised to look for long opportunities near key support levels and follow the trend after breaking through key resistance levels. #美国结束政府停摆