#特朗普撤销农产品关税 People often ask me: why is your judgment always able to hit the rhythm just right?

Actually, there are no secrets. Keep a close eye on the news dynamics, understand the trend directions, master the technical tools, and maintain a calm mindset—once these are in place, what should come will naturally come.

The news must be followed in real time, but one must also guard against the pitfalls of lag. Just looking at the news is not enough; technical indicators need to be considered as well. Sometimes, a major piece of news can cause the market to fluctuate by more than three thousand points in an instant, and whether you dare to act in such moments depends entirely on your judgment.

Why has it been consistently bearish recently? The reason is very clear:

First, the rebound of cryptocurrency is really disappointing; after breaking below $100,000, the technical outlook has directly turned bearish, and the market is clearly very weak.

Second, although the U.S. government has ended the shutdown farce, economic recovery is not something that can be achieved in a day or two. The gradual recovery this week is a potential positive, but the impact is limited.

Third, the internal divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts is growing larger. Several voting members have continuously issued hawkish signals, and whether there will be a rate cut in December is now completely a mystery.

Fourth, ETF capital inflows have not yet returned to normal, and the market is still under pressure.

Fifth, long-term holders begin to take profits and exit, while whale sell-offs intensify, triggering a chain reaction that could erupt at any moment. Is Bitcoin looking to rebound? The difficulty is not small.

Last week, I shorted all the way down from the top range of $106,800 to $107,400. This Monday morning, I started to position long around $93,000 and have already reduced my position. At the beginning of the week, I was optimistic about a short-term rebound, and the bulls have a chance to push up to around $98,000. If it strengthens, it may test the $100,000 mark.

It feels comfortable to have cleared the way, and now I have also grasped the top and bottom conversion.

We do not follow the market; we lead the market.